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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (43576)5/19/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: Geoff Nunn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
There is the unwarranted assumption that P/E expansion ought not to take place absent increases in growth rate. This is untrue because it ignores several factors: 1. The decrease in long-term interest rates; 2. The positive money flows into the equity markets from retirement plans;...

Chuzz, please explain why are you not guilty of double counting. If the supply of liquid savings into the equity markets increases, that should put downward pressure on interest rates. This of course would benefit stocks. Apart from that, I don't see why stock prices (and P/E ratios) should rise. As you yourself have often pointed out, stock valuations depend upon: expected future cash flow, risk, and the market rate of interest. Unless the increase in savings affects one of these 3 factors, why should stock prices be impacted? What is the separate relationship between savings and stock valuations that you are presuming? Just because retirement savings have increased doesn't mean an investor should pay more for stocks. Does it?