Non-DSL technology is alive and kicking
Excerpt: "With the V.90 standard in place, however, the market for 56K-modem chipsets shows signs of strengthening, Beguwala [Rockwell] said. "We've seen a 100% increase in demand for our chipsets from the beginning of this year."
By Mark LaPedus, May 18, 1998, TechWeb News
techweb.com
Digital Subscriber Line technology has been grabbing a lot of the headlines
lately, but the designers and manufacturers of other broadband architectures
aren't about to roll over and play dead.
In fact, non-xDSL devices such as 56-Kbit/s analog modems, cable
modems, LAN/WAN-based equipment, and wireless systems- driven by the
exploding popularity of the Internet-are expected to experience major growth
over the next several years.
Moreover, new chip technologies could propel non-xDSL equipment well
into the next century. For example, in a move that could prolong the life of the
dial-up modem, chip makers are beginning to integrate 56K-modem and
xDSL-based functions on the same silicon.
At the Networld+Interop '98 show in Las Vegas earlier this month, Lucent
Technologies Inc. introduced the industry's first chipset to provide both
56K-modem and Asymmetric DSL (ADSL) functions on the same chip.
Called WildWire, and expected to be in production by the third quarter,
Lucent's chipset will enable OEMs to provide a new class of high-speed
analog/digital modems. Other chip makers, including Alcatel
Microelectronics, Motorola Inc., Rockwell Semiconductor Systems Corp.,
and Texas Instruments Inc., are reportedly developing similar devices.
Such new developments underscore that it is too early to be declaring a
winner in the broad- band-modem sweepstakes. Some technologies,
however, are being deployed faster than others.
"DSL providers are slowly rolling out their services, but frankly, it's still in the
press release stage," said Patti Reali, an analyst at Data-quest Inc., San Jose.
"So at least until 2000, it's still going to be a dial-up-modem world. Cable
modems will also have numerous opportunities," she said.
Painful standards war
The U.S. market for 56-Kbit/s analog modems is expected to nearly double,
from less than 14 million units in 1997 to about 25 million or 26 million this
year, according to Ernie Raper, an analyst at market research firm
VisionQuest 2000 Inc., Moorpark, Calif.
Growth could have been even stronger had there not been a long and
debilitating standards conflict, industry analysts said. In February, however,
the two contending camps finally agreed on a common standard. Called
V.90, it makes the two analog-modem technologies, K56Flex and x2,
interoperable.
"Last year, there was a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt about the
56K-modem market [because there was no standard]," said Keith Barber,
data-communications marketing business manager at Dallas-based Texas
Instruments, which supplies x2-based, V.90-compatible chipsets to the
world's largest modem maker, 3Com Corp. "We shipped a lot of chipsets
last year, but we could have shipped more."
Citing disappointing sales of its modem ICs, Rockwell International Corp.
recently reported a 25% drop in fiscal second-quarter profits. "We
experienced slow months in January and February," said Moiz Beguwala,
vice president and general manager of Rockwell Semiconductor's Personal
Computing Division, Newport Beach, Calif. "People did not have time to
react to the new modem standard earlier in the year, and so our customers
were reluctant to buy any chipsets."
With the V.90 standard in place, however, the market for 56K-modem
chipsets shows signs of strengthening, Beguwala said. "We've seen a 100%
increase in demand for our chipsets from the beginning of this year."
Stabilization of the average selling prices for 56K-modem chipsets is another
encouraging sign, according to Craig Garen, general manager of the
modem-IC business at Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, N.J. Until recently,
suppliers of 56K-modem chipsets were slashing their prices to gain market
share, Garen said.
As the business picture brightens, new competitors are entering the
56K-modem market. Motorola recently introduced the MS143455ASK,
which supports ACPI, "Wake-on-Ring," and other functions, said Matt
Nelson, product line manager for analog-modem chipsets, Phoenix.
Later this year, Davicom Semiconductor Inc., a spinoff of Taiwan's United
Microelectronics Corp., will introduce a 56K-modem chipset, said Ting
Herh, president and chief executive of the San Jose-based fabless IC-design
house.
Analog-to-digital migration path
Several companies are focusing their efforts on integrating 56K-modem and
xDSL functions on the same chip.
Lucent's WildWire enables OEMs to build external and internal modems that
support both 56K-analog and 1.5-Mbit/s ADSL data transmissions,
according to Bob Rango, general manager of market development at Lucent's
Microelectronics Group, Allentown, Pa.
WildFire is a three-chip solution consisting of a DSP, ADSL codec, and
analog-modem codec. The chipset supports the new V.90 analog standard,
and the 1.5-Mbit/s rate is roughly the same specification proposed by the
recently created Universal ADSL Working Group. However, that group has
not completed work on the ADSL standard, known as G.Lite, making
WildWire a nonstandard solution for now.
WildWire, however, will include an upgrade path to G.Lite, Rango said. The
chipset will sell for $69 in 10,000s.
Other companies such as Motorola and TI also appear to be planning to use
their DSP cores to develop 56K/ADSL chips. Motorola's current
analog-modem chipsets and its new ADSL chip, CopperGold, are built
around the same DSP core, according to Nelson, who declined to comment
further on the company's plans in this area.
On the cable end
As these developments are unfolding, other chip makers are focusing their
attention on cable modems. After a slow start, the installed base of cable
modems in North America is expected to more than double, from 200,000
units now to 500,000 by year's end, according to Probe Research Inc.,
Cedar Knolls, N.J.
By 2002, 7.1 million cable modems are expected to be installed in North
America and 13.9 million units worldwide, according to Forward Concepts
Co., Tempe, Ariz. By comparison, 1.4 million residential ADSL lines in
North America and 5.7 million ADSL residential lines worldwide are
expected to be installed by 2002, according to the market research firm.
"The tune has changed considerably for cable modems," said Tim
Lindenfelser, vice president of marketing at Broadcom Corp., an Irvine,
Calif.-based supplier of ICs for cable modems, LANs, and xDSL equipment.
"My feeling is that cable modems are far ahead of ADSL. ADSL is still
embroiled in a standards battle, and [ADSL technology] remains expensive,"
he said.
Like 56K modems, cable modems will benefit from a new standard,
MCNS/DOCSIS. The specification, backed by a consortium of
cable-service operators, defines the characteristics of the RF interface, the
message sets, and the signaling sequences between the head-end and
subscriber modems necessary to achieve interoperability.
The cable-modem market also got a boost when another consortium, the
Cable Broadband Forum, was formed recently. The group plans to push for
the use of online services over cable.
Cost remains an issue, however. Standard 56K modems currently sell for less
than $70, while cable modems run as high as $300 to $400, plus about a $30
monthly service fee.
Copyright (c) 1998 CMP Media Inc.
New Search | Search the Web |
