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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3730)	5/19/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Your persistence shall be 'rewarded' my 'son'.<VBG> Zeev: I am sure you are correct in that there was no technical reason for the test,but from what I understand the reason was purely 'strategic'. If you further question me as to what they are I can only speculate and it could go something like this.... 1.China. A nuclear China with missile pointing at India from bases in Tibet. Also they are having to negotiate from a perceived weak position in settling the disputed territories with China which is not going anywhere.China's growing power in the region and the world also is a concern. 2.Pakistan/Kashmir/another possible nuclear threat. Surely you already know about the Kashmir issue and the proxy war being waged by them which is costing not only money but men and other assorted miseries such as refugees. Paksitan also is believed to be arming themselves to the teeth now with missile technology [recent test firing of a medium range missile called 'Ghauri' might have contributed to the timing] and with possible nuclear capabilities with the alleged help from China and no action is being taken by the U.N nor the U.S. Also before the Pressler amendment the U.S has been helping them with weapons such as advanced fighter planes and related material on top of the Chinese assistance. 3.India harbors a general feeling of betrayal and neglect.. by the outside world in spite of its adherence to non aggression,self restraint and overall non violent policies.Besides they also think they deserve a better representation in world decision making bodies such as the U.N security council etc.The feeling thus far has been if not for nothing at least they are the largest democracy in the world,they represent 20% of the human race, they are a nuclear threshold state as such they have the knowledge to make one if they want to but didn't thus far on the count of maintaining world peace, but all they saw was hypocrisy of nations particularly with the CTBT,NPT and other issues of equal importance to them. Also they know they are an emerging economic and military power [perhaps not as much as some of the other guys but still they know they are on their way] and they think that should count as well. 4.Domestic compulsions. BJP's political manifesto also calls for among other things the following. a)Going nuclear b)A uniform civil code -right now there is one for Hindus,one for Muslims and one for Christians and they feel as a nation the country should have only one civil code,just like the uniform criminal code the country has right now. c)Kashmir-They also wanted to settle this issue So on the nuclear issue one can say they are fulfilling one of their promises and that is more than we can say about some of the others. Though dubbed as Hindu Nationalist party (how true or to what degree only time will tell) BJP is the single largest party but they do not have a majority on their own yet,perhaps their thinking is this nuclear thing might boost the morality of the people and thus create a better chance to get the majority to rule in the next elections. So to conclude the Indians are pissed off at the world,with security concerns and domestic compulsions to boot.I suppose those were reasons enough to set the events in motion and as for what the consequences will be, I do not know.