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To: Fernando Saldanha who wrote (3134)	5/19/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10852

Thanks, great response. Actually, I've heard most of what you said (probably all) but its never fully sunk in. I don't know what I'm looking for. Understanding, I guess. It seems elusive. Now I've been to web sites that run Black-Scholes and calculate the implied volatility for me. But what does that really give me. Nada. Actually, some of the sites calculate whether its above or below some historical volatility trend line (six months I think). That I guess has some value. Seems to me that volatility is BS. Or largely. Its really the X factor. Sure, volatility is a component. But so is buy/sell pressure on the day in question. Trader sentiment, as opposed to general market sentiment (reflected in the underlying stock, I suppose.) Etc. All in all, I haven't got my arms around it. Doug

To: Fernando Saldanha who wrote (3134)	5/19/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: Phil(bullrider)	Respond to of 10852

Fernando, I frankly think that all of the TA theories are not very accurate unless you include all of the other variables. 1. Fundamentals 2. Investor sentiment 3. Business sector, (and the interest therein) 4. And not necessarily last, but important, politics. In my humble opinion, at this point in time, nothing other than politics and investor sentiment has anything to do with where the price of the stock will go in the near term. In the long term, fundamentals will dictate the stock price. Phil