ARTICLE#2Internet Protocol Telephony:
New Markets for Systems
and Service Providers
I N T R O D U C T I O N
Advances in public and private IP-based networks now enable enterprises and
consumers to slash their long-distance charges by as much as 60%. The US spent $75B
on these services in 1997. IP Telephony promises huge savings for businesses and
consumers, and will create even greater opportunities and threats for
telecommuni-cations service providers and on-premises/ network equipment and
software suppliers.
It won't be easy for service providers, including AOL, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Qwest,
MCI, Sprint, and others to capture their share of the emerging multi-billion dollar IP
long-distance market; nor will it be easy for systems suppliers, including Cisco, Lucent,
Nortel, Siemens, and others to seize their share of the burgeoning on-premises/ network
equipment and software markets for IP telephony.
STUDY
Internet Protocol Telephony: New Markets for
Systems and Service Providers gives carriers/ISPs
and software/ hardware companies the insights
needed to seize the IP opportunity-use the Internet
or an intranet to bypass the PSTN for long-distance
voice and fax communications.
The study provides:
A strategic view of the markets and insights
into new customer requirements and
developments that create opportunities for all
systems and services stakeholders
Forecasts of key market segments for voice
and fax communications over IP networks, so
suppliers can quantify the real opportunities*
Insights and recommendations to help make
the business case for IP telephony
Scenarios of how key players are positioning
themselves to help allies and competitors
identify winning approaches
Vendor profiles of leading ISPs and hardware/software suppliers
* Forecasts include international long-distance PSTN, IP services, and hardware/software
markets over a four-year period. Breakouts are for five major regions, including North
America.
The study analyzes the emerging:
User and service provider requirements
Technology that enables Internet telephony
Standards
Carrier-grade products and solutions
Regulatory issues
Service opportunities
Hardware and software opportunities
Pricing trends for IP services
Business and consumer market dynamics
WHO SHOULD READ
Business managers, strategic planners, and research directors at the following types of
companies.
Wireline and wireless service providers, to estimate load impact on existing
networks, modify plant investments, and seize the Internet voice/fax opportunity
ISPs, to boost revenue by providing voice and fax services over the IP networks
On-Premises equipment and software suppliers, to capture new market
opportunities
Manufacturers, to seek new opportunities to provide switching and transmission
gear to carriers
Cable companies, to evaluate and develop the business case for offering IP
Telephony
Businesses, to combine voice and data networks and cut long-distance charges
Semiconductor Companies, to learn the new requirements of equipment
manufacturers
Investors, to know where to place their money
METHODOLOGY
Killen & Associates employs primary
research (direct contacts with industry users
and technology product/services vendors in
the topic area) and secondary research (the
use of proprietary Killen & Associates' data
bases, reports, and videotapes, plus other
industry sources) in preparing its studies.
Market forecasts are developed using the
company's proprietary research methodology.
DELIVERABLES
160-Page Study in electronic and/or
hard copy format (see Order Form)
Question/Answer Services: One hour of
senior analysts' time answering
questions directly related to this study
Upon request, the Executive Summary,
which is in English, can be translated
into French, German, or Spanish
Use the study to:
Build a business case (for or against)
Create a business plan
Provide the basis for an Initial Public Offering
Point developers and engineers in the right direction
Determine investment opportunities
Select target companies for agreements and partnerships
Gain insights into the strategies of key players.
AVAILABILITY: April 1998
Summary
Order Form
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.Introduction
Requirement
Research Methodology
Definitions
Related Killen Studies
Study and Interviews Available in Electronic Form
2.Executive Summary
Market Drivers
Market Forecasts
Recommendations For:
Enterprises
ISPs
Traditional Telephone Companies
Equipment/Software and Systems Integrators
3.Making the Case for IP Telephony
Model for the Enterprise
Pay-back on In-house System
The ISP Approach
Model for Residential Customers
When Does It Make Sense?
4.The Target-International Long Distance Services- The PSTN Market
Regional Breakouts
North America
Europe
Asia/Pacific
South America
Africa/Middle East
Enterprise vs. Residential Regional Breakouts
Revenue Distribution By Application
Voice to Voice
Fax to Fax
Other IP Applications
5.Residential Market
Analysis
North American Forecast
6.The Wireless Market
Analysis
North American Forecast
7.Developments That Enable IP Voice and FAX
Fall-back To the PSTN
Voice and Fax Gateways
Enhancements to PBXs
Voice and Video Signal Processing
Directories
Other
8.Opportunities For ISPs-Market Sizing and Forecasts
Assumptions
Regions
North America
Europe
Asia/Pacific
South America
Africa/Middle East
9.Opportunities For Hardware/Software Providers
Assumptions
Regions
North America
Europe
Asia/Pacific
South America
Africa/Middle East
The Product Categories
Network Equipment
On-Premise Equipment
Miscellaneous Equipment Such as Kiosks
Total for Equipment Providers
Network Software
On-Premises Software
Total for Software
Total for Equipment and Software
10.Profiles of ISPs/Carriers
AGIS
America Online
Ameritech
AT&T
Bell Atlantic
Bell Canada
BT
Deutsche Telekom
FaxSav
Graphnet
GTE
Hongkong Telecom
IBM Global Services
Inter-Tel
MCI/WorlsCom
NTT
Pacific Bell
PSINet
Qwest
SBC
Sprint
11.Hardware/Software Suppliers
ArelNet
Cisco Systems
Clarenet
Fujitsu
IBM
Intel
Lucent Technologies
Microsoft
Natural MicroSystems
Net Centric
NetPhone
NetSpeak
Nortel/Micom
Oki Technologies
Siemens
VocalTec
Vienna Systems
Voxware
12.Lucent's View of the ISP Telephony Marketplace
Carletta Glaspy,
Global Marketing Director, Global Service Provider Business, Lucent
Technologies
13.IXS.NET's View of IP Opportunities for Alternative Carriers
Monty Bannerman, President, IXS.NET
and former manager
Bell Canada
14.Lucent's Vision of the Emerging IP Requirements of Call Centers
Lisa Neal-Graves,
General Manager,
Lucent Technologies
15.Micom's Vision of the IP Private Network Voice/Fax Market
John Reidy,
Senior IP Product Manager,
Micom
16.Pacific Bell Internet Services' View of the IP Opportunity
Mark Fisher, Vice President, Marketing, Pacific Bell Internet Services
17.Conclusions
What Is the Development Status of IP Telephony?
Has the "Knee of the Curve" Been Passed?
Who Will Be Impacted and How?
Scenarios for IP Telephony Adoption by Users
Summary
Table of Contents
Order Form
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Forecast of Total Revenues for Long Distance IP Voice/Fax Services and
Equipment, North America and by Global Region,* 1997-2002
Residential Component of IP Long Distance Voice Services Revenues,** North
America, 1997-2002
Forecast of PSTN Long Distance Fax Services Revenues, North America,
1997-2002
Forecast of PSTN Long Distance Voice Services Revenues,** North America,
1997-2002
Forecast of IP Long Distance Voice Services Revenues,** North America and by
Global Region, 1997-2002
Forecast of IP Long Distance Fax Services Revenues, North America, 1997-2002
Forecast of Revenues from Telecommuni-cations Plant Equipment Investment for
Long Distance IP Voice/Fax, North America, 1997-2002
Forecast of Revenues from On-Premises Equipment for Long Distance IP
Voice/Fax, North America, 1997-2002
Forecast of Revenues from LAN Equipment Sales for Long Distance IP Voice/Fax,
North America, 1997-2002
Forecast of Revenues from On-Premises Software Sales for Long Distance IP
Voice/Fax, North America, 1997-2002
Forecast of Revenues from Gateway Sales for Long Distance IP Voice/Fax, North
America, 1997-2002
Combined Revenue Forecast for Plant Equipment, LANs, On-Premises
Equipment, and Gateways, for Long Distance IP Voice/Fax, North America,
1997-2002
Combined Revenue Forecast from All Equipment and Software for Long Distance
IP Voice/Fax, North America, 1997-2002
* Global Regions include Africa/Middle East, Asia/Pacific, Europe and South America.
**Breakouts include phone-to-phone calls and calls that originate and/or terminate at a PC.
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