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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: posthumousone who wrote (18814)5/20/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Respond to of 94695
 
Post; fast.quote.com
if you don't get a chart at first then click on tick in the
upper right window.
I cant give any hard fast rule as it more like flying by the
seat of your pants. You won't see it to often doing what it is
today Bear used the word I like it's doing contortions ,
like other than real early, it dropped to negative ..and while
it has improved some, the last I looked it was still "negative".
MORE TRADES GOING OFF ON THE DOWN TICK THAN UP TICK, well
the contortion part is that the SPX and NYSE indexes are UP..
and UP to much in spite of the amount of down tick,
this don't make sense.

HOW could it happen ?
My take on it is that the computer trading
programs can track the more liquid stocks Vs the less liquid ones,
If they do a sell on the more liquid stocks with a buy on the
less liquid ones they can take money off the table without dropping
the indexes ( slick like ) in as much as they don't need to buy
very many of the less liquid stocks to hold up the indexes they can
slip out the side door..the bigger drop comes when the selling
moves to the less liquid stocks..then in dramatic fashion the
indexes will catch up with and reflect that negative tick.
To see them go opposite ways is not an every day thing..
and I've not been onto it for all that long. So don't take what
I'm saying like gospel, get a feel for it yourself.
Computer trading volume is running close to 20% on the NYSE, and
like it or not the herd seems to chase after and over shoot them, so when the market is in a trading range until it breaks out, the computers win hands down over the vast majority of the traders.
Jim
PS I suggest you stay away from Futures and Options , untill you
get handy making a few bucks going long or buying dips, dont even
get caught up in trying to short the market. The short side is
more difficult and one who can't make money buying on dips will lose
his shirt shorting.
I'm not saying to buy dips at this time, just that you need that
talent and an understanding of it before you get baited into
shorting or option playing.
It's the nature of the beast, A stock can only go down 100%,
but it can more than double, so down side risk is in a general
sense (all other things being equal) less than upside risk.
You can not count on stop losses to go off at you price in
the event of a GAP or in extreamly heavy volume..you can get
bought in or sold out far beyond your stops. AND if you do
a at that price only type..then they can blow right by you.
Some people swear by them, I never use them..if I want insurance
enough to use a stop loss I go to options. For that reason I
seldom trade any thing but a few penny stocks if they do not have
options, and I never play BB;OTC stocks.
Jim
PS I just looked agian , the tick did move up from 2pm to 2:45,
but the most of it for the day is negitive..and it does not justify
the indexes being up..this sets us up for some down side.