To: drsvelte who wrote (22497 ) 5/20/1998 6:19:00 PM From: drsvelte Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
Here are two recent posts from the legendary P Engr from the AOL boards. He hasn't been right all the time, but he has called some pretty big moves: Subject: ACCUMLATE!!!!!! Date: Wed, May 20, 1998 00:16 EDT From: P Engr Message-id: <1998052004164900.AAA05684@ladder01.news.aol.com> <<<<Sure would appreciate a post from the top. Any comments on oil service sector will be greatly appreciated PEngr. THANKS>>>> I am convinced that we are in leg 3. I think that group rotation in the market just has simply not made it to the oilfield services sector as yet--but it will!! I think fundamentals for the offshore sector are nothing shy of spectacular for the next 10-15 years. The current market pullbacks from recent highs for the group is a very opportune time to accumulate more shares. I am particularly attracted to DO at todays level (48.5). Next in order, I am adding to: GLM (23.5), RIG (52), ESV (28), RDC (28), NE (30). From these levels, I think that 2-3 bagger returns will be enjoyed over the next 1-2 years. I am not adding to land (except NBR at 20-21). As we move into summer, the El Nino may cause an abnormally hot season----- if so, natural gas prices will surge------THIS will change the land situation abruptly and those stocks will have significant moves. Enjoy Leg Three!!!! All IMHO P Engr. Subject: Re: Natural Gas Date: Wed, May 20, 1998 00:48 EDT From: P Engr Message-id: <1998052004482000.AAA04429@ladder03.news.aol.com> Agree with Stratdog------- with these points added: 1) In light of this winter having been the 2nd warmest winter on record-------The Strong natural gas prices are extremely bullish. Supply/Demand are crossing over. We are entering a long term----(many years)-----Shortage of natural gas. 2) If this summer is abnormally warm----we should see prices surge-- perhaps to the $3.50 range---depending on just how Warm (or HOT!!). 3) In any event, with 160 TCF of reserves and 23 TCF/year consumption (which is growing around 2% per year) coupled with low rig count (remember we got up to 5100+ rigs running in 1981---and just replaced consumption)--------A day of reckoning is coming----we have been on this collision course for 17 years. Weather it is this summer, or next winter----the shortage is coming. 4) The shortage will seem endless----even with $5+/mcf natural gas prices-----because the infrastructure of the domestic drilling industry has been decimated. Despite the extremely rewarding profitability for E&P, there won't be sufficient natural gas developed to replace consumption-------------due to the rig bottleneck---------and that bottleneck will take 5-10 years of high dayrates to get rid of. Enjoy the coming Shortage------of natural gas And RIGS!!!!! All IMHO!!! P Engr.