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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ron delany who wrote (3428)	5/20/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

Ron, <You and others have talked about a trading range with the low at 17 1/2 or so but the high of that range keeps coming down so now everyone sells at @20 but a few months ago they sold at @22 and before that @24 (I don't have the exact numbers but check a chart). Why not call it a triangle. The roof comes down lower and lower every month.> I disagree that the top of the trading range keeps coming down. The recent rally highs have been: 25 3/8 on January 5, 1998 25 3/4 on February 20, 1998 21 15/16 on April 29, 1998 Yes, the high in April was lower than the high in February, but the high in February was higher than the high in January. The monthly data doesn't show a declining triangle either because the April high exceeded the March high and the February high exceeded the January high: January: 18 3/4 to 25 3/8 February: 19 1/4 to 25 3/4 March: 17 1/16 to 19 1/2 April: 17 11/16 to 21 15/16 May: 17 3/8 to 21 1/8 <Plus if semis like Intel are in trouble the little companies could get killed> While INTC and VLSI have been somewhat correlated recently, there is no way to tell if INTC will continue to decline and there is no way to tell if VLSI will follow INTC if it does. I have a hard enough time predicting what VLSI will do much much less predicting what INTC will do and then what VLSI will do depending on what INTC does. There are too many variables there so I'll just stick to the VLSI chart. <There is a long term possibly bearish story on this stock.> I don't trade based on fundamentals, but I think the long term story at VLSI is very bright. They constantly bring new products to market in high growth areas and don't have a lot of dependence on the personal computer market. What long term bearish story are you referring to? <Earnings as low as 50 cents for the year> I'm not sure where you got your data from. Earnings for the past 4 quarters have been: March 98: $0.07 December 97: $0.45 September 97: $0.34 June 97: $0.25 Total 12 month trailing earnings: $1.11 According to I/B/E/S, VLSI's earnings are estimated to be 69 cents in FY 98 and $1.31 in FY 99. None of these numbers are close to 50 cents and I think the stock will soon be discounting 1999 earnings. At today's close of 17 1/2, VLSI is trading at 13.4 x the 1999 estimate. Unless earnings estimates for 1999 come down, the stock is undervalued. <I mean come on.> Where are we going: up or down?