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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Izzy who wrote (4359)	5/20/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 6136

AGPH valuation Its still quite difficult to valuate a stock like AGPH. It is and will be a one product co. for the next years. I think the basic concern is that the 'net worth' of the pipeline is difficult to evaluate and that the competition in the HIV protease inhibitor market may get fierce. VRTX will get his Amprenavir on the market in 99 (which may be superior to Viracept) and thus may grab the No.1 spot in the market. This could mean that any prognosis of sales # may prove worthless. As a one product co. you cannot valuate the co. with an earning growth rate, due to the uncertainties and this will translate into a higher stock volatility too. I'm positive on AGPH and rather prefer a one product co. to a no product co. but this is the reason why the share price is so low. IMHO

To: Izzy who wrote (4359)	5/20/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: PAL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Izzy, You are already know about supply and demand. One of the important component of the price of a stock is how well the demand is. This means the underwriter of the stock, the public relations, the promotions of the company to get the market to drool over the prospect of the company. ENMD was nothing in November, but then a few weeks ago, a journalist from NYT reported that same story on the front page. That was the break. Even AGPH came on CNBC and promoted AG3340 on Phase II/III. But then it seems there is no follow up. Have you heard anything on AGPH from that LA conference? Brokerage firms make money by buying and selling for funds and underwrites secondary offerings, involved in mergers etc. If a company does that often, it becomes the darling of WS. Example: AOL. In addition AOL has the numero uno PR dept. Now if AGPH has Wally Amos as PR, it might be different. Unfortunately, scientists are from a good PR person.