To: Ginco who wrote (109 ) 5/21/1998 12:55:00 AM From: David in Ontario Respond to of 2444
Sleeping peacefully in Ontario... I don't normally follow day-to-day trends that closely and I'm more of an investor than a trader of stock. I am a very recent newcomer to this thread and to SI (yes - I'm fully paid up!). Rich is the guy who has a better handle on NIR and he adds a lot more than I do here. One rule that everyone should follow is don't make any investment decisions by what is posted on any thread. I enjoy sharing my thoughts, but where I'm able I also provide links to readers to assist them in their research. Please don't make any decisions on what I have to say - but I hope that at least some of the information that I post is useful to others. Why spend the time doing it...well I'm always very grateful when I read posts that contain useful information that I may have not otherwise found...so I try to do the same. I find the BB's a very useful vehicle for the free exchange of ideas, opinions and information - but many other pieces of information must be gathered before sensible, patient and considered decisions can be made before buying/selling. What's this got to do with NIR - nothing directly - just general comments. Back to NIR... Some points: (1) Volume continues to remain strong The bottom line in any stock auction market is supply and demand. The reason the dips in stock price mean very little to me is because volume remains strong - a lot of folks want to buy into this stock or enhance their own position. If you can buy on a dip then all the more power to you. I just don't have the TA skills or knowledge to actively trade the stock with the objective of enhancing my position. I just know that if I sold 30% of my shares - believing that the price would go lower, that positive news would be released and I'd be left behind holding a weaker position. NIR is just too sensitive to news for my liking to play it in that manner. I don't know how much the `shorts' influence the dips, but their influence may be over-rated. I'd be interested to read others comments on the influence of `shorts' (2) DuPont - my own prediction...nothing more When Jason told me that a `billion $+ US chemical company is very interested in NIR' and that `NIR management would consider a buyout at (a lot more than - can't remember the exact words used) $20+, only one company came to mind - DuPont. To me that's relevant news so I've shared it. DuPont is my candidate - the `billion $+ US chemical company that is interested in NIR' comes directly from Investor Relations. I'm sure there must be a number of other candidates. Nonetheless, I've put the DuPont/ICI web sites on my list of NIR research links - may turn up something. This caught my eye...the recent ICI-DuPont deal - can't remember what it was now. I think that's interesting don't you? (3) Production capacity - takes time to build infrastructure As posted earlier - NIR is looking for partners to produce the product to meet demand. There are few things more annoying to customers than to be told - thanks for your order - but we're unable to meet demand - how does a four month delivery date sound? Still interested? I would ensure that I had the infrastructure in place (manufacturing capacity, licensing, distribution, marketing, customer support...) before I really went out and marketed my product heavily. Why disappoint customers? It's better to have everyone wait until you're ready. (4) NIR's chart I don't have the example at hand - but NIR's chart is very similar (and typical) to a stock that is consolidating, with volume decreasing slightly, prior to a News driven breakout. When I find the chart I'll post it - and it would be interesting for an experienced Technical Analyst to comment. Thanks to Al/Gino for passing on the update from Jason - we became spoiled with `news' in April and it seems like ages ago now, but then it was just a few weeks. Another long post the next one will be much, much shorter. This is how it'll play out. The TSE announces another NIR trading halt pending news from NIR...News is released and NIR resumes trading. There will be a bright white flash in the sky (then I'll know what's happened) - the TSE has gone into overdrive - the Ask Price has jumped $7.50 fifteen minutes after trading resumes, stock volume is building (like it does on the 401 at 2 PM every damn week day). My post may simply read "NIR is moving BAAAABBBBBBYYYYYY!" Sleeping like a lamb David in Ontario