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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (4254)	5/21/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: Thomas P. Friend	Respond to of 93625

>> Yes, it is a fact that market makers are hosing the little guy on this stock.....That is manipulation....they have sapped any interest out of this stock<< It's great to see that conspiracy theories are not just limited to government UFO cover-ups. Why don't you tell us just who is doing this manipulating, and why they are doing it? Explain yourself, and not with mumbo-jumbo assertions not backed up by hard facts. I issued the same challenge on the Pinnacle Micro thread last year. The stock was down terribly, in the $5-$7 range, down from the $20's, and everyone was charging market maker manipulation. Rather than looking at the facts and trying to understand the supply/demand dynamics of the stock and what that was clearly telling them, they just accused me of being one of the manipulators! The stock now trades around $.20; the company is unlikely to make it. Before you jump to the obvious defense: this stock is much different; Rambus is making money and has a bright future; Pinnacle was losing money: I will tell you, forget it. That company at one time had what appeared to be a very bright future, and they were at one time making money. Everyone on the thread was posting a multitude of positive press articles showing how the new products were going to lead the company back to glory; I would read these articles and be sorely tempted to be a raging bull, but the stock chart told a different story, and I had been burned by the stock in the past. The bottom line is that unless you are talking about penny stocks, the market is a supply and demand animal, fairly immune from significant manipulation. I'm bullish on Rambus long term, but I sold my position a couple weeks ago. I did so because: 1. The stock right now is a laggard. The market has surged forward the last few months, leaving Rambus in the dust. Why? (Hint: the answer is NOT market maker manipulation.) 2. The comments from the CFO a couple weeks ago led me to believe that the anticipated significant earnings increases that we all expect have been pushed out to the year 2000, at earliest. 3. I own a small computer sales/service/upgrade company. I buy DRAM every week. A couple months ago, I was paying $25 for 16MB EDO DRAM. Yesterday, I paid $17, a 32% decline in a very short time period. As the price of competing devices declines, so will DRDRAM have to, when it arrives (a premium of 35% may be acceptable in the marketplace; consumers may balk at a premium of 100%; people will cling to their 400MHz Pentium II machines a little longer. I sell computers; there is a lot of price sensitivity.); therefore, reduced DRDRAM prices and reduced Rambus royalties. I sold because the market is telling me that it is not yet time for Rambus. I don't need to buy it at the bottom. The story is cloudy right now, and as long as it remains so to most investors, there won't be a lot of demand for the stock. If the Rambus story plays out as we all expect it to, I will not have to buy at the bottom to make a lot of money. In the meantime, I do not need to tie up my money in this particular stock. Almost everyone on this thread (including me) is bullish on Rambus. Many of you just can't believe that the stock isn't moving; that everyone else is not seeing what you see. It might be time to take a step back and try to see what they are seeing that you may have blinded yourself to. I think Rambus will have its day; the questions are when, and how much of a day will it have when that day arrives. Sorry, I didn't expect to go on so long, but it gave me a chance to articulate my current thoughts on Rambus to me as well as to you. Here's to hoping Rambus takes off like a rocket tomorrow (I just don't think it will). Tom