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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dwight vickers who wrote (22153)	5/21/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 42771

(Off Topic) Indonesia Here's what's up. Bank exposure to Indonesia: Citibank $800,000,000 Chase $2,500,000,000 JP Morgan $813,000,000 BNP $1,010,000,000 HSBC $1,837,000,000 Standard $1,683,000,000 Fuji $1,771,000,000 And my favorite bank Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi $3,683,000,000 Recently Japanese corporations have been telling these banks that they will not assume the debt of their Indonesian subsidiaries. Suharto's removal was very quick compared to how long I thought it would take. However Hababie will have to go too. As the political instability sets in for the longer term, you have to make a quick comparison with South Korea. There you have an ELECTED democrat in power and the government has political legitimacy and the army has been curbed and you still have enormous social unrest due to the austerity measures. There is no political consensus in Indonesia --- the various social forces have been unable to express themselves politically. The vast majority of the disenfranchised are unwilling to accept austerity measures in Indonesia so that these banks can get paid back. The middle class wants power but like all pre-revolutionary situations there is a play of newly emerging political forces and a continuing atmosphere of economic and political chaos with more change to come. How will the markets like a military coup? Asian markets rallied last night but if you look at the Yen, it is still 135. In the end the banks will have to write off Indonesia. And there will be many ups and downs. It will be interesting to see if Clinton can find an Indonesian Yeltsin to replace Suharto.