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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (19590)	5/21/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, >Any TA folks notice the head and shoulders formation of AMAT over the last month. Does this indicate a major reversal pending??< According to DW's book, page 30, the profitability probability for a triple top which we had is 80.13%, with an average gain of $28.7 in 6.8 months. Based on the low of $32 in March '98 plus $28.70 gives us $60.70. Our triple top is $39. $40 will break it. Including Tito's info that AMAT many times runs up on the forth try we may be getting ready for a movement up after a shakeout period. We will just have to wait and see especially since the FED did not take action to raise rates today. Just my $.02. Paul V.

To: Big Bucks who wrote (19590)	5/21/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, I don't see anything that looks like a head and shoulders. A head and shoulders would have the head clearly higher than both shoulders, which is not what happened here. This is more of a shakeout, with the stock oscilating between 35 and 39. mg

To: Big Bucks who wrote (19590)	5/21/1998 1:18:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

BB, yeah, the head is supposed to be higher than the shoulders. This one isn't. Also ESTIMATE REVISIONS: AMAT: EDWARD JONES has reiterated estimate for long term EPS growth of 20.00% per year on 05/18/98 AMAT: HAMBRECHT&QUIST decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 10/98 from $1.50 to $1.32 on 05/13/98 AMAT: HAMBRECHT&QUIST decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 10/99 from $1.75 to $1.50 on 05/13/98 AMAT: HAMBRECHT&QUIST decreased estimate for quarter ending 07/99 from $0.47 to $0.41 on 05/13/98 AMAT: HAMBRECHT&QUIST decreased estimate for quarter ending 10/99 from $0.52 to $0.48 on 05/13/98 [source Zacks] So there! <G> GM

To: Big Bucks who wrote (19590)	5/21/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Charles Skeen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I started lurking on this thread when I was considering an investment in the Reset PERQS securities that were issued recently. But the stock looks decidedly bearish to me at this point. Fundamentally, there seem to be questions about capital investment by chip companies and SE Asia companies in the light of overcapacity and difficult economic environments. Technically, I see no evidence of a head and shoulders top (or is it reversal). What I do see is a violation to the downside of the recent minor uptrend line, as well as of 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving average lines (see PCQuote's Chart Watch). Looks like the stock is moving down to support at 33, and maybe further down, to 30-31. I plan to wait for a better buying opportunity. JMO, Charlie.