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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (5495)	5/21/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

jtechkid: Do you recall 1996? Was it the same kind of pre-warnings pattern? First the chip companies then a quarter or two later the chip-equipment companies started. Interestingly "both" sectors hit their lows at the same time - sometime in July. In 1998: we have the chip companies getting blasted and stocks getting killed. We have the chip equip. companies that are small getting taken down. BUT the one major difference is that the bigger types - AMAT, NVLS - still are quite high. In 1996 everyone hit bottom at the same time I think. Not absolutely sure. I agree - unless the analysts have already sharply reduced estimates - the warnings will be coming. Usually at the start of a down-cycle the analyst n/t estimates are way too optimistic and the companies ought to easily surprise on the downside I think - thus warnings are a coming, I agree. Shane.