Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (3007)	5/21/1998 1:44:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

Carl, Thanks for the input. I have a high regard for your publication and would re-subscribe if I ever found the time. After doing your analysis, comparing Mirra with Auriga-C, which has the smaller footprint (including dry in/dry out)? Lower COO? Greater throughput? I am a firm believer that regardless as to whether SFAM "may" claim victory in some of the above categories, AMAT will win business ... as will SFAM. Do you see a NVLS buyout of SFAM down the road given CEO Hill's expressed interest in being the "damascene" king? Your insight is substantially welcome on this thread....SemiBull

To: C_Johnson who wrote (3007)	5/26/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

re. AMAT's CMP sales, it is interesting to compare them to SFAM's: Synthesizing info from SFAM's quarterly reports and from Carl's post reporting what an analyst told him about AMAT's CMP sales, I get the following, which shows only CMP sales (excluding other stuff) for both companies: SFAM 8/96 SFAM 11/96 SFAM 2/97 SFAM 5/97 SFAM 8/97 SFAM 11/97 SFAM 2/98 $16.3M $16.8 M $22.5 M $25.2 M $30.7 M $34.7 M $28 M AMAT 1/98 AMAT 4/98 AMAT 4/98 bookings $45-50 M $46 M $75 - 80 M First of all, it's obvious that AMAT is a significantly bigger CMP player than SFAM now. Second, it looks to me as if AMAT held CMP sales steady recently whereas SFAM's sales are dropping sequentially. The sequential drop of SFAM only corresponds to a couple of machines, so maybe it isn't significant, but just the same it isn't as good as AMAT's sequential performance. What's most impressive about AMAT's results are the $75-$80 M bookings for the latest quarter that Carl mentioned. This makes it look like they will really leave the rest of the CMP players in the dust. Maybe AMAT isn't taking away dollars of sales from SFAM, but it does appear that AMAT is taking market share from them, contrary to Carl's observation. SFAM trades at a lower multiple of sales and earnings than does AMAT, and perhaps that is merited by the growth rates. I own SFAM shares, so I'm not trying to knock SFAM. Maybe the CMP market growth as a whole will be enough to overcome the market share erosion. On the other hand, the table above looks discouraging enough that I'm questioning whether I should be holding SFAM stock.