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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jaime H. Ayalde who wrote (1121)	5/21/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Noblesse Oblige	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1671

Hi Jaime, Your points about Microsoft/TRW are telling, but you should note that TRW will shortly be on Simula's Board. From such a close distance, industrial sabotage would prove fatal to the interloper. As for management blaming the shareholders, I do think that has occasionally been the case. When one is a "visionary", often it is difficult to recognize that others (the shareholders) are out of step with grandiose views. Guys like you and I fight it out in the trenches every day. And, I totally agree with you...the most important issue is profitability. If I were currently functioning at Simula, my controls on spending would be so tight that you would have to requisition pencils. Having said that, I have been in Townsend's presence when he has accepted responsibility for the errors in the way 16G seating was ramped. Management goofed. There is no other way to look at it. And, that is hurting the stock now. If, for example, the third and fourth quarter numbers had approximated "street" estimates, the recent announcements about Delphi and TRW would have had a very positive impact on the stock. But, the trading in the stock has been soured for some time because of last year's excessive optimism, and though I talk to many large holders of these shares directly, the assessment is universal. No one wants to stick their necks out based on the "promise" of coming fundamental improvements. It is my belief that the signing of an ITS order will confirm for many (me, too!) that the current round of conference call assurances (about us getting our fair share of side impact head protection business) doesn't reflect the excessive optimism of a visionary, but is grounded in real world facts. As outsiders, we can only speculate on the progress. I know that management believes what it says...we will get our fair share. The problem in the market is that many believed management's assertions about last year's expected results, too, and the disappointment is still palpable. All of us are too old and too experienced to give lip service to plausible explanations about the stock's price action. The bottom line is...until proven otherwise by a public announcement...the market, once egregiously disappointed, takes everything management asserts with the proverbial "grain of salt." It is what it is, Jaime. All of us are passengers on the Simula train. When management re-establishes its credibility with the market, the shares will trade much differently. I can't speak for you, but the day they make that first additional ITS announcement, I will be buying shares three points higher than the previous close. So will everyone else I know. Maybe what that means is that the stock will be up five points. I can't wait until that day to find out! Have a good day.