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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (3009)	5/22/1998 2:16:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3736

Hello Carl, <<I can't post a lot because of time constraints - there just aren't enough hours in the day.>> I truly understand. Fortunately, I am an insomniac. :~) <<Right now I am really waiting for some feedback from users of both products before drawing a line in the sand. Actually, any of the other players should also be considered in this analysis. Because the tools are being refined so quickly I think analysis at any given moment should be taken with a grain of salt. SEMICON West should really shed some light on the progress Applied has made with the Mirra. You are right in saying that there is room for both companies in the CMP arena.>> I guess my feedback is not as open as yours to other players. They've seen what Lam has to offer with their linear polishing system and are thus looking at SFAM b/c of COO, footprint and throughput, AMAT for the obvious reasons, and IPEC because they were once technical leaders. But time and time again, the question of overall footprint (which includes dry in dry out) has been the primary driver, which is why SFAM has been viewed so favorably my sources. I guess I am surprised that the market is more dynamic than what I am hearing. This is a positive for customers, though with too much dynamics don't you force the customer into a "wait and see" game b/c of such continuous level of improvements, or am I misreading you here? At one point you were fairly bullish on SFAM - has that changed for any reason in particular such as the your view of the dynamics taking place amongst the players in the CMP market? <<The 64k question! In time, one would think that Lam and Novellus will get together and then move for a CMP solution. This could take a long time though and I don't believe playing the stocks for a takeover is worth the effort. The linear polishing system (belt sander approach) is probably not going to work in the long run so finding a CMP cohort with a bit of market share does make sense. Of course, this all depends if Lam and Novellus get together in the first place. Don't hold your breath waiting..... You know as well as I do this rumor has been around for years.>> True. I am a long term investor with a 3-5 year horizon. Having said that I don't believe in buying a stock based on the prospects of a takeover. I have been LONG on SFAM at sub 19 for some time, and have seen no reason to change my position (please feel free rebut or critique my thoughts here). My sources have been sour to Lam for some time, and especially towards ONTK's linear CMP approach. Having said that, for speculation purposes exclusively, my guess is that a marriage between LRCX and NVLS for CMP purposes exclusively seems a bit less likely to me than NVLS and SFAM. Obviously I have a vested interest in my conclusion, so objectivity may not rule my decision making processes here. Still, with CEO Hill on SFAM's Board, I would speculative the later rather than the former, given SFAM's present marketshare and technical edge of Ontrack. But as you said it is the $64k question....and this is mere speculation. Thanks for you insight.....SemiBull