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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1664)	5/21/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Mike, As reported in HK Standard: THE mainland economy maintained smooth operations during the first four months of this year, while the central government's policies for expanding domestic demand and investment in infrastructure took effect, according Xinhua News Agency quoting a monthly report released by the State Statistics Bureau (SSB) yesterday. During the January-April period, China generated an industrial added value of 608.7 billion yuan (HK$569.7 billion), up 7.9 per cent on an annual basis. However, the growth rate was 3.5 percentage points down from the same period in 1997. The slowdown in the industrial sector should be regarded as a result of the Asian financial crisis in addition to shrinking consumption both at home and abroad, the SSB report said. In April, the imports of industrial products increased by 7.2 per cent on the basis of the same month of 1997. This growth rate was 12.3 percentage points down. The country's investment in fixed assets amounted to 271.3 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2 per cent. The increase was 1.9 percentage points lower than the average for the first quarter of this year. A year-on-year increase of 15.3 per cent in investment was registered in April. During the January-April period, the investment in capital construction projects grew by 11.7 per cent from the same period of 1997. That in technical renovation and upgrading projects, and the real estate sector increased by 11.4 per cent and 12.7 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, China's retail sales amounted to 938.8 billion yuan worth, up 6.9 per cent over the previous year's figure. The retail markets registered a 7 per cent increase in cities and a 6.7 per cent rise in rural areas. According to the SSB report, China registered a foreign trade volume worth US$27.64 billion (HK$214.14 billion) in April, up 6.3 per cent on an annual basis. Included were an export volume worth US$15.95 billion, up 7.9 per cent over the same period of 1997, and an import volume worth US$11.69 billion. Compared with the figure for the first quarter, export growth decreased 5.3 percentage points. In the first four months of this year exports amounted to US$56.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.6 per cent. Imports stood at US$41.29 billion, up 3.1 per cent. Retail prices went down by 1.9 per cent, while consumer prices rose by 0.1 per cent. To create an economic rebound, the government should offer more aid to enterprises with good market potential. IMO - The growth far exceeds the numbers being reported by other Asian countries considering the lack of investment from and export sales to the rest of Asia. Unless these numbers progressively worsen, there should be no rush for them to devalue the yuan. For what it's worth, Ron

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1664)	5/21/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

To All: Allow me to preface what I'm about to say with the fact that the recent (2-year) strength in the U.S. dollar has been matched by that of the renminbi, and few others (e.g. Swiss franc, DM at times). So they talk, talk, talk about a renminbi devaluation being inevitable; and soon investment takes a substantial drop, and remains low, only for no one wanting to be caught in the "inevitable" devaluation. This brings a great deal of pressure on the targeted (sic) market to, in fact, devalue. A handy device for U.S. and European banks and investment houses who would dearly love the cheap share prices to be had via purchases made in a marginally stronger currency, and in a region where share prices already have a great deal of bad news in them. Prices so cheap that the recently relaxed ownership criteria in some countries will provide an opportunity to buy enormous influence, if not controlling interest, in some very lucrative enterprises. For those who have not read or reviewed Mr. John Naisbitt's Global Paradox, he is quite convincing when he explains that "the bigger the world economy, the more powerful its smallest players." So wealthy, he puts, that some of the erstwhile smaller players in world markets would attain significant influence on many impactful global issues. And, I put, when planning their positions as a group (e.g. ASEAN), all the more impact. Do I believe the past year's pattern of aggressive currency speculation was in itself at fault for the crisis in East Asian economies? Of course not. Do I believe the debt disposition of certain East Asian economies provided good opportunity for the legacy players in global politics to buy some time for their attempts at bringing some of the future players in-line with their various agendas? Yes, I do. For those who are either reluctant to, or just will not, entertain the notion of such an effort, you should advise yourself more widely and roundly.