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To: drsvelte who wrote (22602)	5/21/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Thursday May 21, 7:49 am Eastern Time OPEC price rescue hit by cuts dilemma, Iraq doubts By William Maclean LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - OPEC producers dismayed by fresh oil price falls are struggling to rescue glutted oil markets from profound uncertainties about output policy, analysts say. At the core of the producer club's predicament is a dilemma about the much-touted prospect of fresh output cuts aimed at curbing oversupply, they say. Not for the first time, the group responsible for 40 percent of world output may have painted itself into a corner by signalling intentions it cannot fulfil. Having publicly flirted with the possibility of more reductions following cuts agreed earlier this year, OPEC ministers risk gouging prices if they now fail to make the additional sacrifice, analysts say. ''People have been talking too much,'' said a senior oilman in an OPEC-member Gulf state. ''They've almost got themselves into a trap. There will be a psychological let-down in the market if they don't follow through.'' ''The thing is, if we only hung on through this season, which is always the weakest cycle in the market, and let the agreement work itself out, prices would naturally recover. You have to stay cool.'' Ministers from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to tackle the possibility of more cuts when they hold a scheduled ministerial meeting on June 24 in Vienna. They will try to measure progress in a March accord between 10 OPEC and a handful of non-OPEC producers to withdraw 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market for the remainder of this year. OPEC bigwig Saudi Arabia said this week it might be necessary for world producers to remove another 500,000 barrels per day from swollen supply if prices stayed low. Some Gulf oil executives privately called the statement an admission that the March pledges to withdraw almost two percent of world supply would not be completely heeded. The pact sealed in secret talks in Riyadh helped drag prices back from nine-year lows touched in early March but markets now show every sign of slipping back to the levels that spurred the pact. Benchmark Brent crude was valued at $13.85 a barrel on Thursday, almost $6 down from last year's average and equivalent to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue losses for oil-dependent OPEC producers. OPEC, excluding Iraq, went part of the way to delivering on its large 1.245 million bpd share, slicing output by 900,000 bpd. But the cuts were countered by 300,000 bpd of gains in Baghdad's U.N.-monitored output, and heavy inventories in key western markets kept a lid on the price gains. So despite the reductions, many analysts believe supplies are still too large to salvage markets drowning in unwanted crude. And neither OPEC nor its new-found allies outside the organisation show signs of agreement on the necessity for further cuts. Kuwait said this month it planned to push for more cuts. But Mexico, a non-OPEC architect of the earlier cuts, said recently the market outlook indicated more cuts would probably not be needed. Russia will go to Vienna as an observer, its first such attendance for five years, in a limited advance for OPEC's campaign to share supply management with outsiders. But analysts doubt that Russia, rebuilding its giant petroleum industry after years of disruption and decay, would be in any mood to deliver substantial extra cuts beyond a puny 61,000 bpd it offered in March. ''It remains the case that the major burden of cuts lies on OPEC,'' said Mehdi Varzi, oil analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. OPEC watchers said matters may become clearer after a scheduled meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil ministers on June 16 in Riyadh. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and non-OPEC Oman are GCC members along with Bahrain. There are further uncertainties. Chief among them are talks on U.N.-monitored Iraqi exports that could determine whether its 1.5 million bpd or so of sales continue to reach world markets. The so-called oil-for-food sales programme, under which Iraq can sell oil to buy food, medicine and other goods, is in dispute every six months when it comes up for renewal. In the past, the dispute has prompted Baghdad to stop oil sales until its distribution plan is approved. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said on Tuesday he doubted Iraq's plan would be approved before the current six month round of the programme expires on June 3, raising the prospect of an interruption to exports. ''It would be just the tonic the market needs,'' said Peter Gignoux, head of the energy desk at Salomon Smith Barney in London. But on Wednesday, a U.N. official said the gap in talks on the aid plan was narrowing. ''We are still aiming to get it out on time,'' the official said. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: drsvelte who wrote (22602)	5/21/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

drsvelte; RE:" Electricity Demand, Summer '98 " >Where do you get the forecasts for electricity demand ? el Ni¤o effects, most say - Here is a typical press release... SOURCE: Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. Con Edison Projects Record Peak Demand for Electricity This Summer NEW YORK, May 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc., (Con Edison) projects that electricity demand from its three million customers in New York City and Westchester County will set a new record for peak electrical load this summer. The anticipated peak of 11,375 megawatts, dependent on heat and humidity, would exceed by 362 megawatts, the previous record peak load of 11,013 megawatts set on July 15, 1997. A megawatt is a million watts or enough power to light 10,000 100-watt light bulbs. The entire Borough of Staten Island, for example, will use 500 megawatts during a period of high demand. -Steve