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To: Curlton Latts who wrote (10879)	5/21/1998 1:16:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 27307

<< I have yet to ever meet someone who could make money playing a market timing style >> Nice to meet you <g>

To: Curlton Latts who wrote (10879)	5/22/1998 1:41:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

>>However, you'll have to admit that notwithstanding your accuracy with respect to tech the NASDAQ today is still north of 1800 while in Aug 1997 it was 1600 and change. The October-December decline was bad enough to miss. With the market at these valuations, any break has to be considered potentially serious. This one looks particularly serious because there are few (if any) external agents involved. At the moment, the (broad) market seems to be falling of its own weight. When the ground starts shaking, I don't like to stick around to deal with a monster, especially when I don't know what the monster is. Maybe it will prove to be false alarm, and that's OK, too. Warren Buffett's first rule of investing is, "Don't lose." Most technology mutual funds have turnover exceeding 100% annually. As a technology investor, trading-out (or hedging) is an essential part of maintaining portfolio stability. Even the best investments of the past ten years had 30-50% corrections that unfolded with clear warning. Even if one or two great ones get away from you, on average you'll still do fine, and there will always be good stocks to choose from. Long-term investing is great if you hold mutual funds, and mutual funds spend plenty promoting the merits of buy-and-hold, for obvious reasons. They do trading for you. Holding stocks is inherently less stable a proposition. >>Also, the commission costs tend to eat you up with these buy backs-liquidations-buybacks-liquidations. No way. >>come some time in the future with NASDAQ 2000 will you have timed the buy back such that you didn't get left behind? It's nearly impossible to get left behind if you avoid big losses. No one can time the market perfectly, but it's silly to fight the tape.