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Technology Stocks : Y2k Why the stock-market will collapse within days/week -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (112)	5/21/1998 1:54:00 PM
From: Paul van Wijk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 185

John, Great posting. Yardeni now also talking about embedded software. Maybe those who follow this thread will understand that my postings and my goals are not based on false sentiment. With regards, Paul

To: John Mansfield who wrote (112)	5/21/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 185

This is David Henry's most recent USA TODAY column, which appeared May 21, 1998. Investors must keep 2000 bug in mind NEW YORK - With 589 days left before computers are asked to recognize the year 2000, some investors and stock analysts are taking the first steps toward sorting companies fit to survive Y2K computer bugs from those that might not. ... Merrill Lynch insurance analyst Jay Cohen recently told clients that while he has not yet factored in Y2K, he'll be publishing a ''Year 2000 Watch'' monthly ... Health care, education and semiconductor industries are in the worst shape with software companies also near bottom, says Lou Marcoccio, Gartner's director of Y2K research ... What is an investor to do in the meantime? Marcoccio suggests extra wariness of companies doing a lot of business in Southeast Asia, Latin America (excluding Brazil) and the Middle East (excluding Israel), regions where many companies and governments won't be ready. ... usatoday.com

To: John Mansfield who wrote (112)	5/21/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 185

INTERESTING DISCUSSION: Yardeni, Roach, Saloner 'Yardeni: I am amazed by how many smart people dismiss the worst-case scenarios with so little thought. ' 'Yardeni: We may have a situation where people are in total denial right up until Jan. 1, 2000.' 'Yardeni: The year 2000 may not be all that horrible because it will create a huge capital spending boom. Companies that are Y2K compliant and survive a few months of disruptions are going to be in a great position to buy out their competitors who are not Y2K compliant. ' ____ Stephen Roach is chief economist, director of global economic analysis and a managing director at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. in New York City. Garth Saloner is Robert A. Magowan professor of strategic management and economics at Stanford University Graduate School of Business in Palo Alto, Calif. Edward Yardeni is chief economist and a managing director of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in New York City. .... "Y2K's biggest effect is that it is distracting many large organizations from making strategic IT investments." -Garth Saloner CIO Executive Research Center (http://www.cio.com/ forums/executive) Year 2000 Research Center (http://www.cio.com/forums/y2k/) "I'm just not going to buy into the script that the worst case is this massive failure in which the system grinds to a halt, the stock exchange doesn't open, the bond market melts down and credit card companies blow up." -Stephen Roach Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co (http://www.deanwitter discover.com/) Sloan Foundation (http://www.sloan.org/) Edward Yardeni (http://www.yardeni.com) "No one is immune to the risk that vital systems will be disrupted." -Edward Yardeni .. 'THE YEAR 2000 (Y2K) FIX stands deservedly at or near the top of every large company's list of IT expenditures. If it doesn't at this point, you've probably missed the boat and are a likely target of the growing flock of lawyers who are circling the Y2K corporate laggards, eagerly licking their chops at the potential roadkill. Besides the obvious ramifications of not being Y2K ready, however, there lies another issue worthy of discussion, namely, what effect will the Y2K fix have on the economy? Many analysts are painting gloom-and-doom scenarios in which the robust economy of late is shattered by huge losses in productivity as companies devote vast resources to simply maintain their technology status quo--in short, to survive. And then there are companies whose computer systems will fail in year 2000, which could cause an economic downturn as those companies lay off employees or worse, go bankrupt. However, not all Y2K observers think The Big Fix will automatically lead to an economic downturn. To further explore Y2K's effect on the economy, CIO Enterprise convened a virtual roundtable of three leading economists. Garth Saloner is currently one of the principal researchers on a major study of the worldwide computer industry funded by the Sloan Foundation. Stephen S. Roach oversees a team of 15 economists at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. in New York City. He recently served on a National Academy of Sciences committee that examined the impact of information technology on the performance of the U.S. service sector. Edward Yardeni has spoken and written frequently about Y2K. He testified before Congress in 1997 in support of mandating that publicly traded companies disclose the state of their Y2K readiness. Each economist was interviewed separately, then given the opportunity to respond to the others' viewpoints; the responses are in italics. ... cio.com