Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (44113)	5/21/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: MichaelW	Respond to of 176387

Does anyone know when NT 5.0 comes out?

To: JRI who wrote (44113)	5/21/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: WBC	Respond to of 176387

Are JP and LT the same person...they seem to have identically flawed, baseless and unsubstantiated rationales for being Dell bears. Either that or they are great put-ons trying to evoke outrage among enlightened, information age, investors. It's easy to be negative and predict "rainy weather", which everyone agrees will someday come. It may be quite a ways away and not as severe as they predict. It's just that they will miss so many sunny days and opportunities in the meantime. If they won the lottery, they would probably complain about having to pick up the prize.

To: JRI who wrote (44113)	5/21/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

John, I wrote this in response to one of the bears who frequents this thread. He had asked me what would prompt me to sell Dell. This is the reply I sent him: "... when I see signs of a long-term, systemic decrease in demand for computers. While I look primarily at the business, not the stock-market, I note that Dell has a forward P/E of around 44 with an anticipated long-term (3-5 year) growth rate of 40% so we have a PEG of around 1.1 -- much lower than that of the S&P500. "In spite of all of the hysterical bear postings, if you dissect Dell's financials they turned in superb numbers. In those numbers I saw evidence of a strengthening of the business model as a result of very close attention to inventory. Remember, this was supposed to be a very tough quarter for the box-makers. Growth in demand was down 2-3% from the previous quarter (according to IDC and the Gartner Group), and pricing pressure was severe (according to CPQ, HWP and IBM). "The other thing that I see is that companies like CPQ and HWP are caught in a no-man's land. BTO and JIT don't work if channels are used. That translates into ongoing profitability problems. CPQ in particular seems unwilling to jettison resellers, and I'm guessing (no data here) that HWP may decide to exit this business altogether. If this is the case, we could see CPQ entrenched in two areas: retail and high-end servers. But they will have lost a significant portion of the desk-top, portable and mid-end server market to Dell. So, if trends continue, Dell should grow much faster than its rivals." TTFN, CTC

To: JRI who wrote (44113)	5/21/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

re: Please, please quit being so sloppy with your characterizations, classification of existing data! You are being misleading! I am being misleading ??? Maybe. If I am right, then am I misleading ? If you are right, then I most likely am. I have voiced concerns that everyone in DELL stock should be awear of. The main differance is that I keep trying to insist that they will impact the stock now. I have been wrong on that, so maybe I have mislead to an extent. I posted the % surprise for the last 6 quarters. If you Extrapolate the trend, from 20% down to 5%, you will find that in 1-2 quarters DELL will hit or fall below analysts ever increasing estimates. How about this for the trend I see and you don't. The level of surprise has dropped from a level in the 10-20% range to a level in the 3-8% range. It is posible for this measure to jump fall or stay the same going forward. I put the odds of a jump as low, for staying the same odd are higher, and for a fall the odds are highest IMO. As for academics, very few academics have ever generated consistant long term gains in the equity markets. Just because you don't like or agree with what I am saying does not mean I am sloppy or misleading. Most of what I say / argue is taken from brokerage reports and is not made up or conjecture as you assume. I just focus on the most concerning points. Jim