To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (44119 ) 5/21/1998 3:14:00 PM From: JRI Respond to of 176387
Chuzz- Great response, as always....JP: Another thing... Quit saying that all vendors had great unit growth in Q1...IBM did not! And forget the ridiculous position that CPQ, HP, and IBM will remain for years, ad nausem, supporting billion dollar, unprofitable business units (PC's) to support other business units (service, high end servers) that can stand well enough on their own. (The synergy realized by keeping around an un-profitable full PC line comes no where close to justifying itself in the long run). Do you think Gertsner (a non-tech guy) is happy with IBM's current PC results? Do you think Gertsner (a non-tech guy) is going to keep around a multi-billion dollar, unprofitable business unit long-term? Investors, analysts will have his head! HP, IBM, and CPQ will try to tweak their inferior models, try to squeeze out a little more profitably...hope the inventory "furballs" go away soon, and component prices start rising again, so that they can return to a respectable level of profitability......If this happens, great......That means Dell will be even more profitable (if healthier market conditions return) ......Eventually, though, one (or more) from CPQ, HP, or IBM will eventually drop out of PC's altogether (or sell only in one or more of the profitable segments)....It can happen fast, or it can happen slow........but its going to happen......and Dell will be the main beneficiary.....How much does this reality figure into Dell's current PE. Nada. Yet, Dell's stock gets hit everytime there is a sneeze in the computer industry. Wait 'til investors see the real writing on the wall (might take a few years though).... In the meantime, Dell will keep providing consistent, +40% growth in earnings, profits, and EPS... All IMO, of course......Good luck, JP