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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (19614)	5/21/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, for those who lost the URL to the AMAT price estimate charts...http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5464/ Each estimate has the poster's initials. The survey was started by Jacob Snyder. GM

To: Big Bucks who wrote (19614)	5/22/1998 3:19:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

The Big Question: where is the bottom: 1. The flatish BTB in May to June 1996, after 3 consecutive months of sharp decline, gave many false hope, there was a rally in the stock, and then the following month the sharp downward movement of BTB and stock price resumed with a vengeance. Don't be fooled. 2. AMAT, and the rest of the group, will need to form a base. This base will last at least a couple of months. I'm going to let it bounce off support before I set my limit buy orders. There is no hurry. 3. Support in 12/97 and 1/98 was at about a P/S=2. That is reasonable valuation, but not yet undervalued. 4. EPS estimates are being cut sharply for 1999. Those 1999 estimates are random numbers, and simply indicate the emotional tone of the analyst herd. The mood is shifting from hope to angst. It is a sign of approaching capitulation. 4. KLIC acted as the canary in the mine, warning of impending disaster, selling off sharply in September 1997, 3 weeks before the others fell off the cliff (holding hands all together). If I had been paying closer attention at the time, I'd be richer now. KLIC has also been in a steady downtrend since Feb. 1998, and has almost reached its 1/98 low. In Jan. 1998, every one I follow (AMAT NVLS KLIC KLAC ASMLF) found support at the previous month's low. If KLIC (or KLAC) takes out the 1/98 low, then I think the rest of the lemmings will follow. Oops, mixing my animal analogies. 5. Right now, INTC is a safer bet than any of the semi-equips. They are at a support line going way way back, they tend to decline less than the semi-equips when the market or the "Hi-techs" sell off, and the long-term returns on AMAT and INTC are identical. Also, semis tend to recover about 6 months before semi-equips. I have a large limit buy order for INTC at 72. I've covered my ASMLF and NVLS shorts, made money on both, and now have no position in (and no orders for) any semi-equips. 6. We have not begun to stair-step up, as many had hoped up to a few days ago. Rather, we have been in a broad trading range since late October 1997. Since then, I count 7 rallies that failed in the 38-40 area. There is some soft support at 33. 7. The numbers to follow are the BTB, chip prices, semi earnings, P/S ratios. 8. The numbers to ignore are analyst estimates, semi-equip earnings, P/E ratios. 9. AMAT's management, investor ralations, and the analysts who follow them, have no idea when the downturn will end, and neither do I.