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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (3803)	5/21/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Mohan, One thing about this thread is that we never run out of fodder for our comments, cribbages, and consternations. Here is stratford.com on rising tensions between India/Pakistan submitted without any judgement on veracity or importance but with a small prayer. Best, Stitch Global Intelligence Update Red Alert May 22, 1998 Tension Rises Between India and Pakistan in Kashmir Tensions are rising along the line of control that divides the disputed territory of Kashmir between Pakistani and Indian controlled zones. Skirmishes are common along the border, and two of the countries' three wars have been fought over the disputed region. However, the rise of a Hindu nationalist BJP government in New Delhi and India's recent nuclear weapons tests have exacerbated already poor relations between India and Pakistan. On May 21, India's Defense Ministry announced that it had deployed heavy military equipment to the border "to meet any eventuality," following what New Delhi claims were two days of "unprovoked" Pakistani artillery and mortar fire at Indian positions in the Kupwara and Baramulla districts. India claims that Pakistan is using the artillery barrage to conceal the infiltration of armed guerrillas into Indian territory. India's "Deccan Chronicle" reported on May 20 that Pakistani Rangers had maintained intermittent and indiscriminate fire against the Poonch, Rajouri, Samba and R.S. Pura sectors of Jammu since the 15th. The paper reported that over 500 trained guerrillas are waiting in staging camps on the Pakistani side of the border, prepared for infiltration into Indian territory. According to the newspaper, the Pakistani-backed guerrillas were now operating in units of 15 to 20, and had shown a willingness to directly attack Indian Army positions. Pakistani officials have called the Indian accusations "baseless." The Pakistani newspaper "Khabrain" reported on May 19 that Pakistani F-16 fighters were forced to launch the previous day, when military radars detected Indian combat aircraft bound for Islamabad. The Islamabad and Quetta airports were reportedly closed to routine traffic from 6:00 to 8:00 PM local time, while the F-16s scrambled to meet the inbound Indian aircraft. Khabrain reported that, upon detecting the Pakistani fighters, the Indian aircraft returned to their territory. Rhetoric out of India has further inflamed the situation. In a thinly veiled threat on Monday, Indian Home Minister L. K. Advani said that Pakistan should take into account that India's nuclear tests "had made a real difference to the strategic situation" in Kashmir. On Wednesday, Advani threatened to take action against "Pakistan's provocations" in Kashmir, announcing that India's Defense Minister and armed forces chiefs decided at a meeting with him on May 18 "that further misadventures on Indian territory shall be dealt with in a proactive manner." On Thursday, a top aide to Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee announced that a war with Pakistan was not imminent. However, also on Thursday, the PTI news agency quoted Parliamentary and Tourism Minister and BJP member Madan Lal Khurana as saying, "If Pakistan wants to fight another war with us, they should tell us the time and place." On May 20, following the threats from New Delhi, and considering the likelihood of an Indian attack on Pakistani-held Kashmir, Pakistani forces were reportedly placed on highest alert. With a belligerent new Hindu nationalist government in charge, additional troop deployments underway, and heated rhetoric reaching to insinuations of a nuclear solution to the Kashmir situation, the possibility of a military conflict in the region is high. On April 29, well in advance of India's nuclear tests, Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes visited the Siachen glacier, near the dividing line between Pakistani and Indian troops. Whether this visit was routine, an observation of defenses in preparation for the tests, or an observation of offensive combat readiness is unclear. However, both countries appear ready for the tense standoff to erupt into something more. The Kashmir region is clearly a tinderbox waiting for a spark.