To: robert marshall who wrote (15994 ) 5/22/1998 2:47:00 AM From: joe Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
Jeez, I was out sick today (5/21), and I come back to COMS down 1 1/2??#@!$% Just as I'm feeling better I get zapped with this - DAMN!! Well, trying to think rationally here some of my thoughts... 1) I agree mostly with Mang, that this move looks more market related than anything else: - techs are suddently turning tail, people see DELL get a good earnings report and then drop ~$10. ??? - MSFT and INTC dropping; these are the supposed tech market leaders!! Any tech stock is suspect at this point to be beat down - good earnings or not. The drop we've seen in just these two stocks alone can be called a market correction considering their weighting on the Nasdaq index. - MM's have been calling a market correction for a while now, so eventually it'll happen to some degree, because the Street is self-fullfilling(sp?). Then again the market is pretty schzoid as of late, so who knows what's next with the market. - Fed comes out with the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting and it shows an 11-1 vote in favor of raising interest rates. - Indonesia has a change in leadership (yet nobody really knows who the leader is yet?) - Greenspan says this morning that Asia problems haven't hit us yet - that there's a delayed reaction from the time markets & currencies drop to the time US economy gets hit. In other words, he believes there's going to be a good slowdown (yet he says beware of inflation...) With all this hitting us now, who would want to buy anything, much less COMS?? I think, since there's so much uncertainty because of above, that most traders and the market are closing up/protecting their positions, and waiting until after the 3-day weekend, to see what the story is. World events seem to be too risky - maybe it's time to take a break... 2) The good news (if any - trying to stay positive) - low volume going down. I agree with blankmind. This doesn't seem like a selloff. IMO, we would have seen lots more volume. - the COMS chart looks like the charts of most of the big tech stocks and the Nasdaq index - so it's not COMS specific. - if we go down to 20-25, there seems like there will be bargain hunters, from some of the responses of the thread. - as long as COMS keeps dropping on low volume, the rebound will be pretty fast. - we haven't heard any COMS specific bad news except for the CFO talking with DMG (if you want to call that bad news) - earnings revisions makes all the ANALysts look as ignorant as we are. They have no clue about revenues and earnings, just like we don't. 3) It seems to me, that the biggest problem is that Eric B. is not giving anybody any guidance. I would think that most MMs are tired of that, and just assume the worst from COMS. 4) With this scenario, IMO, shorts have the edge. If buying is at least temporarily postponed, shorts will just keep edging the stock down more and more. Hopefully, the low volume will eventually work against them. 5) ONE HOPE FILLING IDEA - Probably, this Fall, the network sector is going to see merger mania. If COMS is at it's present price, it will be very 'juicy'. Even if COMS gets back into it's former glory, it will still be considered a prime candidate for merger. REMEMBER, COMS is NOT JUST a Modem company, and all good companies know this. Still a die-hard long, because I think this company has a lot of long-term value. joe