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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (22694)	5/22/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: rocklobster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

CXIPY is the perfect example of what was done by the shorts during the last big downcycle. Any driller or service stock that showed strength was immediately shorted. Look at how CXIPY has been falling since its great open. Only up 1 5/8 now Later, Richard

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (22694)	5/22/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

CNBC says; ''Death by a thousand cuts'' ....in the oil sector. ...On Strategy's in a sector sell off: theStreet.Com had an interesting article on strategy during a sector sell off. The strategy called for an investor to rank his top sector holdings by ''fundamentals'' only. Then to select the top 4-5 and sell off the weak links to ''buy-down'' your cost basis in these core holds. If we soon see FGII @ $29-29 or CDG @ sub-$40 as well as the other obvious sell offs - how low can we go ? Is it time for the long term bulls in this sector to ''cull the herd'' and double-down on core holds ? My initial reaction is to just stay put and hold. Unfortunately, I'm fully invested and have just limited funds to perhaps moderately increase positions to lower cost basis in FGII under $30 or CDG @ $39 as these are core positions for me. I like FGII, TDW, FLC, EVI, and small cap OMNI as my core holds. CDG would be hard to give up on as well; allthough it has taken a big hit . I loaded up on a couple of small/micro caps initially OMNI & TCMS; 1 hit 1 fell... TCMS is my largest holding; has taken a huge hit, but has the highest short term risk with perhaps the highest upside potential - it would be very hard to give up on this one. My problem with the circle-the-wagons theory from theStreet.Com; is I appreciate the fact that by selling off big losers I can double down and lower my cost basis in core positions; but I hate to let value plays like PKD, MIND, UTI or nice mid-small caps like HLX, HMAR, BDI, or solid companies like PDS, DO,NE, GLM go... When we rebound; its hard to imagine that PKD's initial bounce will not exceed say EVI or FGII... My brain tells me that the contrarian play on the out of favor stocks, especially land drillers like PKD, UTI, BDI, PTEN etc. may be the best bets and actually show the biggest short term gains when crude prices stabilize... however if crude does not rebound for some time.... then the circle the wagons and ''cull the herd'' strategy seems to make sense. It all unfortunately, boils down to a bet on the recovery of crude oil prices, as this is what the market is using as the barometer to price driller and service stocks; be it technically right or wrong ... I'm holding untill seeing the reaction the the June OPEC meeting; then the hard decisions must be made... What a time to have been in cash - I'd love to be pushing my shopping cart through the oil patch right now for the first time !