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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (1181)	5/22/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: Ray Hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Phil, The Silver Institute piece contains the essential, fundamental argument for taking a low risk, patient position in silver. Traders, however, need to know much more about short-run market dynamics, e.g. seasonal factors, short term supply elasticity on price, options pricing behavior, etc. I've enjoyed a long career (30+ years) of studying metals price behavior as a professional Securities Analyst and do not yet believe I know all. So how do casual investors navigate the shark infested waters and turn a good profit? Most casual investors whom I know made real fortunes on the last silver boom did so by accident. For each one that sold right, I know another that held all the way back down. This brings me to question whether there is a sufficient demand for me to start up a silver-specific market letter that deals with 1) short run price cycle dynamics for silver, 2) comparative data on all the silver equities, 3) comparative value analysis of the same silver equities ranking each in order of relative value, 4) comparative valuation for traders of silver derivatives (futures, options on equities, options on futures) against straight equities, and 5) anecdotal remarks about the industry, its properties, mines (I'm educated as a geologist, also) and its players. Your thoughts appreciated. RH

To: philv who wrote (1181)	5/24/1998 12:15:00 AM
From: kingfisher	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8010

Phil, Thanks for that info.I read the report by Armstrong on his reasons for selling silver.He stated that all of the worlds silver ever produced still exists.I find that statement irresponsible.It would be interesting to know how many million ozs per year is lost by normal manufacturing process .For example can Kodak recover 100% of all silver used in photography?I do not think so.How much silver is sent up a refineries smoke stack etc..There are I am sure countless examples of silver destroyed, buried or altered forever. The suggestion that an effective investment strategy would be to go long gold and short silver.I can just see professional traders salivating at the prospect of thousands of amateurs shorting silver.What a huge bear trap would be sprung on those fools! Richard