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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (22231)	5/22/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Paul, I'm a bit confused at your question and how it relates to your previous comments / opinions of the Conference call. But, regarding the upgrading to NetWare 5 issue, you can tell from the Conference call that they are a bit concerned about customers deferring their current purchasing of NOVL's NOS product until they know that they have the option to upgrade free to NetWare 5. The current promo is not free. It only provides a discounted upgrade price for new 4.11 purchases to NetWare 5 when released (and provides the Novonyx software as well - I believe). Many customers will not purchase and NetWare until they are assured that the upgrade to NetWare 5 is free (i.e. they enter the free upgrade windows). If there is no free upgrade window then these customers will simply wait until NetWare 5 is actually released. This will negatively impact NOVL's revenue stream for the Q3 reporting period, but this revenue will be deferred because all those that held back will now initiate their purchases. This pent up release of deferred sales will now show up in the Q4 numbers. In addition to that, the new NetWare 5 sales will kick in from those that like what they see and make renewed commitments to NetWare / NOVL. Also, the increased boost of Y2K upgrading revenues will also become much more noticable. Schmidt stated in his Conference call that he didnt know if Y2K would be a + or - to the bottom line. I have heard internally that they know it will be a big +! Logic dictates that it will. Like I said and will continue to say, all the stars will come into alignment on the Q4 earnings report. Wall Street will be floored by the actual EPS over street estimate. Do I get a Keg of Beer on this one if I'm right? Toy