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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Lurgio who wrote (647)5/24/1998 9:39:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
 
Interesting stuff. It's fascinating to see how many journalists are willing to defend Motorola even after the worst blunders, there's obviously tons of goodwill towards this company. That can be a big asset. I don't quite understand the focus on CDMA, probably Mot's bigger headache is their lack of competitiveness in GSM. Europe's and Asia's GSM markets are growing at 45% annual pace and GSM is predicted to have a 47% global market share in 2002 in the latest projections. Looking at this springs consumer surveys and tech magazine product ratings Mot is in danger of losing the number 3 position in the European digital phone market. It's also being squeezed out of China as well, just as the Chinese GSM phone sales are mushrooming towards 34 million units by 2000.
There was an article in "Kauppalehti" comparing the infrastructure sales of Nokia and Ericsson. It seems that Nokia's network sales in 1997 were worth only 20% of Ericsson's network sales... but during the last 12 months Nokia's announced network contracts were worth almost 70% of Ericsson's announced contracts. The implication being that Nokia is catching up fast. According to the article Nokia already has soundly beaten Ericson in the European market during the past year. Ericsson has a substantial lead in Asia and Nokia's problem seems to be that it has alomst no presence in North and South America. Anyway, the big news to me was that Nokia's estimated market share has already climbed to 20-25% in the mobile infrastructure sector. This would seem to indicate that Nokia is already contesting Lucent for the number two spot in global sales. You'd never notice this from the articles in WSJ, Businessweek, etc, which focus exclusively on Ericsson, Lucent, Nortel and Motorola on their coverage on mobile network market.
This month has been pretty spectacular for Ericsson, though. Hope Nokia can hit back in force during June. The key Belgium TETRA deal could be decided between Nokia and Motorola already next week... and Nokia is currently going head to to head with Ericsson and Lucent in a mammoth Mexican contract. Clinch both high sex appeal deals and this baby will zoom past 75$.

Tero