>>If some solid buying doesn't appear in next two days,
it might be better to sell, and rebuy at lower point. - joe
volume will be zero for the next 3 days, with a two day
weekend and a holiday on monday. please, your our bull,
reconsider, wait to see if positive volume happens
in the next 3 days.
<<
Whoops, sorry, momentarily forgot about the 3-day weekend.
(If I see positive volume then...wow!)
COMS thread, I'm definitely a Bull with COMS. Heck, even the
posts by the supposed Bears know that long-term the company
will do OK. The only perma-bear who hates
this stock forever is Crawford. (must be some personal
mission of his...).
I will definitely wait until next tues-thurs to see the
tape. If I unload some COMS, it will only be small parts
to probably buy back later - but like 3ComBoy said, it's
probably a dumb strategy to time the market, so I was
just partly throwing it out to see what people's reaction
was.
I just came back from lunch, picked up the lasted copy of
InformationWeek in my mail box, opened it up, and the
first thing I saw was a 2-page ad by COMS. It was
plugging the state-of-the-art videoconferencing LAN.
Seems like by next year, lots of the major companies
will have videoconferencing on the average workstation,
throughout the greater part of a an employee group.
This will revolutionize the way the employee
workforce works in large corporations.
How can anybody not be BULLISH nowing COMS is the leader
in this area. Maybe some traders around here have
been sitting next to their PC too long, and
don't know the kind of effect it will have on
the Fortune 500 type companies (having never been
in one before)
The problem, as we know, is the modem side....
Maybe COMS needs more help than we realize
with the management side of the Modem part of the
company, as was suggested by the WSJ post
by blankmind, yesterday. Whatever problems they
have on the modem side, it's hard to imagine the
PC world with something better than the 56K Modem -
I can't see how they won't sell. Another reason
to be BULLISH on COMS.
My thinking is thus:
1) We are in new territory now - new lows - new
ranges. (Hopefully not for long...due to low volume)
2) Historically, what the stock has done at this point,
(recalling from memory, which may be wrong), is that
no buyers appear at the end part of the preannouncement
month. Then everybody waits 2-4 days, beginning of next
month, to see if COMS appears as if it definitely will
not preannounce.
3) If no preannouncement by then, then optimistic
buyers will definitely come in and take some kind of
position in case COMS has a break through.
4) The problem though is thus: there is still about 4-7
days before the optimistism will take hold.
This is time enough for shorts to push the stock
down more, though probably without much volume. But it's
strange to see a stock pushed down 7-8 pts or so
without volume.
5) There's another part that bugs me. Historically, optimism
sets in just before COMS is going to announce - lots of
reasons why - 2nd biggest network company,
great name, network sector is a great field, COMS
is priced dirt cheap,....
But last earnings report, Eric B. pulled a doozy on us
by totally missing the numbers, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY
not letting any
of us know beforehand. Of course, his explanation
afterwards oN why he didn't put out more guidance
made sense, but it broke some unwritten rules about
guidance.
We were all expecting around .11c (I think). We all knew
not to expect much if anything. The main purpose of
the quarter was to "purge the inventory channels".
But since a "number" had
been put in place, our expectations were pinned on that.
Sort of an unwritten promise. Even if he had said -.11c,
that would have been OK, as long as he guided us to
that number, and we knew progress was coming.
Anyway, this time, nobody will believe any estimate.
All the big MMs will wait to see the earnings.
6) What we need is some guidance, or some upgrade, or
some reit. A vacuum of no news is not a good sign, even
though with COMS it might be great news... (Just seems
that they have their own preannouncement style).
Anyway, I'm still bullish, and so far it looks like
COMS will end up over 37. Continued slow bleeding...
Hopefully, strong bounce back on Tuesday.
joe
PS - sorry for the long diatribe for some of you perma-bears...
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