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Technology Stocks : Smart Modular - diamond in the rough? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradegod who wrote (1399)	5/22/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2020

DB 10:13 [SMOD] SMART MODULAR CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY -- NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY. I would have liked to seen this last week!<g> Even the analysts were taken by surprise. I agree at these prices the stock is attractive. In 6 months we should see improvement in forward looking earnings w/ ramp of new products. I have to admit the CC was lousy...Ajay needs to go to some kind of PR classes on how to put positive spin on negatives. I'm still waiting to hear something upbeat from the company. I hope to buy before the day is out. I think once the current buying drys up we will see a better price. I could be comfortable if I get my average price down to $17. I can wait til August for the company to beat .19 as long as they guide the following quarters up. Jeff

To: Tradegod who wrote (1399)	5/22/1998 2:01:00 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2020

Sorry Kids, I smell fear. And that's when my greed instinct kicks in. I bought quite a few shares today at 13 15/16. My logic is simple: I don't think SMOD as a company has fundamentally changed very much. I think the next 2 quarters look weak given the semiconductor market, but like oil, I have no doubt that demand will compensate down the road. In the meantime, we have a CEO doing the unheard of: preannouncing earnings estimates for the next 2 quarters? I have never heard a CEO say as directly what Ajay said. Those have to be lowball numbers, ie, Ajay sees low visibility and a lot of weakness. To prevent misperception, disappointment, and lawsuits, he gives a lowball number he's sure they can hit. Then again, can he be sued for giving lowball numbers that are inaccurate, ie, if they beat earnings (say $0.24 for Q3) would they get sued now? Bottom Line: $1.09 for 1998 is not bad, given the current sentiment about the semiconductor market. I'm willing to stretch.