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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (852)	5/22/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12475

Mohan and others: Does Pakistan really have nuclear capability? MNBC reported about technical difficulties for which Pakistan could not test. Since the Indian test in 1974, Pakistan had been struggling to smuggle parts from all over the world and they were even caught many times. I feel the Chinese have not supplied Pakistan the necessary fuses or some other key ingredients. A top level Pakistani delegation visited China soon after Indian test perhaps (???) to get these elements for the test and perhaps (??) China did not supply them. However, Pakistanis are claiming that they have nuclear devices that are qualitatively superior to India's. This could still mean that they have the Chinese technology and so they believe it has to be superior to India's. But, Pakistanis may not yet have the key components to make this device usable. If Pakistan had any testable device, they would have exploded one between 1974 and now and not waited until India went for the second round, given (i) their style of operation, (ii) the fact that the generals control everything there, (iii) every one had information since 1995 that India was preparing for Pokhran-II tests (courtsey US satellite data). What do you all think? Rational

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (852)	5/23/1998 4:23:00 AM
From: LoLoLoLita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12475

Mohan, If they can make a 200-kiloton device, there is no reason they couldn't make a megaton device. Once they have the concept, the only constraint is size and weight capacity for their delivery mechanism. That, and the inability to test underground at large yields. Everything else being equal, a 200-kiloton device would be smaller than a 1 megatonner. Have you seen anything where India is claiming to be able to deliver this large weapon by missile? Or is it supposed to be a bomb? I'd be very sceptical of their ability to put It (the big one) in a missile warhead. Certainly impossible without beaucoup more nuclear tests. The thing I find suspicious is India saying that they are willing to sign the CTBT (now!) and do no more tests. If they signed now, then they would be unable to weaponize their H bomb. If, with our 1000+ nuclear tests and very sophisticated computer models, the U.S. can't develop new nuclear weapons without doing actual tests, I'm hard pressed to see how India can do it. David