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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TEDennis who wrote (11729)	5/23/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 13949

To all : ERP growth slowdown - another opportunity? Is it (already) time to consider going short on SAP, BAANF; or buying long term put options? Or is this still too dangerous? Any thoughts? John ___________ SOFTWARE SLOWDOWN Will the Year 2000 problem affect the booming ERP market? And if so, when? In recent years, enterprise resource planning (ERP) software companies such as SAP, PeopleSoft and Baan, have been a sure bet for investors, with annual growth rates of at least 60% and net profits which have as much as doubled year-on-year. But now, financial analysts are warning that the party may soon be over. NationsBanc Montgomery Securities analyst Robert Austrian is advising investors that they should cut their holdings from mid-1998 and into 1999.' ... SLOWDOWN If the analysts are right, the Year 2000 problem could have a massive impact on the ERP vendors. ... According to IDC analyst Tim Oleson, the average US company will dedicate 52.6% of its IT budget for 1998 to solving Year 2000 problems. That means IS managers must cut back elsewhere - and the area that is suffering the most as a result is application software. .... . In Europe, the trend is, as yet, less pronounced. "As far as we're seeing, very little action is being taken [on Y2K], and few strategic IT projects have been shelved as a result," says Will Cappelli of Ovum. Nevertheless, he expects this to change during 1998. ... But despite warnings of a slowdown in sales, the chief executives of several ERP companies remain sanguine about the prospect. "We are El Nino compliant," boasts Jan Baan, chief executive of Baan. "Every few years," he says, "we see unexpected changes and we adapt to them. We're good at this." He accepts that a hiatus in software sales is a possibility, but denies that it will affect Baan. .... gtbusiness.com

To: TEDennis who wrote (11729)	5/24/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

TED - Off Topic (somewhat) This will probably bring you out of retirement: Message 4576746 From the reply .... ...But American companies are reducing their staff shortages at a far greater rate than their British counterparts, by raiding them for staff, offering programmers up to œ5,000 a day, and ensuring they can take Concorde flights home every weekend to see their families. Just think, œ1,000,000 for working one more year. Al