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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)	5/23/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL	Respond to of 42834

Hi Mr. GJ - your survey: 2. Partially invested-taking money off the table, taking profits, because the market is priced to perfection-being cautious. My main indicator, the Point & Figure NYSE %Bullish indicator went bearish on 5/13. Regards, Duke

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)	5/23/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

2. Partially invested-taking money off the table, taking profits, because the market is priced to perfection-being cautious. Went from 95% to 91% (rough equity : Fixed income ratio) selling over valued (very temporary) company stock in 401K plan and buying intermediate bonds just before stock dropped 20%. Did it in 3 moves of about 1% each. Now considering buying back in if it goes into bargain basement level which is only a few $ away due to market over reaction to not meeting analysists expectations. Also sold some taxable company stock at the good price to have funds for bargain hunting and/or a vacation. Friday last, did a 1% shift in weighting from US to Europe. Sold TR Price Sci & Tech last week after it was up 20% at that time and put the $ into TRP Europe. S&T down 3.5% this week and Europe up 2.3% so I feel really smart today! Still looking for more. maybe do another 2% shift using 401K from S&P 500 to Templeton Foreign which is 50% in Europe. Why you ask? I'm overweighted in US and under in Foreign and Fixed. Now that US has much less upside (unless I see some good trades) I still think Europe and the rest has a few more yrs of above average returns. I also think bonds will drift lower so it isn't a bad parking place though I am considering using MMF to park money from selling on highs and buying on dips since market and interest rates are coupled lately. Will you tabulate the results? regards Kirk out

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)	5/23/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Mr. GJ: RE: <Your Survey > Count me as " Fully invested-think there is a great deal more or more upside to go". IMHO, falling demand from Asia and cheep imports from Asia will keep U.S. GDP growth, inflation and interest rates low. I expect the tech revolution to continue for the forseeable future, especially in areas and countries hit by recession conditions - tech gadgets are a way to lower cost and increase margins in a world where you can't raise prices and where revenues are falling due to lower demand. Growth in M3 money supply will continue to provide just the right amount of fuel to the U.S. economy, however I expect slower growth and FALLING interest rates due to lowering inflation expectations over the next few years. I expect unemployment to remain low and gradually draft lower. While I expect some REAL wage gains, my belief is that they will continue to be more than offset by productivity gains for the next few years at a minimum. For all of these reasons, count me as bullish, but NOT complacent. However, the impact of any massive failures in Japan's banking system IS a worry. So is the possibility of a competitive currency devaluation by China and Hong Kong. High levels of bullishness among investment advisors (over 80%) would really put a scare in me. So would a FED tightenning of more than .25%. I remain concerned that the greatest risk in this environment is a PROFITS RECESSION and all that implies for stock price levels. P

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)	5/23/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: Trebor	Respond to of 42834

2. Partially invested-taking money off the table, taking profits, because the market is priced to perfection-being cautious< I recently pulled out some money for a rental real estate diversification. Am also selling short on some high flying internet stocks that I think are bound to come back to earth and am using covered calls on other stocks that I think are in for a correction. But this past week's slamming of high tech stocks almost has me back in the buying mood. I think there are some long-term bargains to be had -- Intel, Hewlett Packard and Novellus to name three. (IMHO)

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)	5/23/1998 3:53:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Survey Response Me: Partially invested-taking money off the table, taking profits, because the market is priced to perfection-being cautious This market seems to be priced to perfection so I have changed my own allocation after many, many years from a 95% equity exposure to a 66.50% equity exposure. I have done this only in tax deferred accounts, no tax implications, and if I am wrong I will jump right back into a fully invested position. I have a great deal of trouble buying the index when price earnings ratio are ranging from 23 to 23.5 times. I believe the valuations are out of line-priced at nirvana- and rising federal reserve rates or a whiff of inflation may see the pe change for the worse. Quite frankly I am surprised that more people are not taking significant profits. I made a bundle b/w the January 12th Brinker call and the end of March. I had a great year in those 2.5 months. I figure by nailing down those significant profits I cannot go wrong no matter what happens. I have also been reading Grove's book too closely and I am trying to act earlier, in terms of taking profits, rather than later when they may evaporate and everyone is charging towards the door.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)	5/23/1998 8:59:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Re: "Fully Invested, Partially Invested or Out of the Market?" When you say "fully invested," do you mean "100% of financial assets invested in equities" or do you mean "100% of the portion of financial assets earmarked for equities in the market presently?" In other words, if my ideal asset allocation is 75% stocks and 25% fixed income, and I currently have 75% of my financial assets invested in the stock market, should I vote "fully invested?" Best wishes, I2