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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Saline who wrote (14388)	5/23/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: cool	Respond to of 53068

That is exactly what I was doing at 4 this morning when I could not sleep --who me addicted---Lots of knowledge their--I was esp interested in his News Release comments since I am a news hound

To: Susan Saline who wrote (14388)	5/23/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Market comments. Nothing has changed in the past few weeks and I still think we are in a trading range. I don't expect the indexes to break significantly below support or above resistance in the near term. We are still in a bull market, sentiment is low, bond rates are low, the news in technology is doom and gloom, and people have been shorting semiconductor stocks like there's no tomorrow the past couple of days. This all adds up to a rally in my opinion, especially in the Nasdaq, although I think there could be a little more short term pain left in that index. Nasdaq Composite: The Nasdaq closed below the lower daily bollinger band on May 22 for the first time since December 97. The next support level is at 1786 which is the intraday low that was reached on April 9, 1998. The low on May 22 was 1796 so we are very close. If 1786 doesn't hold, then there is more support from the middle weekly bollinger band at 1760. The last two times the Nasdaq closed below its lower daily bollinger band there was a sharp decline the next day followed by a reversal into the close. This marked the bottom of the trading range both times. Here are the numbers: October 27, 1997 (Nasdaq closed below the lower daily bb) Open: 1633.92 High: 1650.92 Low: 1531.56 Close: 1535.09 October 28, 1997 (new low and reversal) Open: 1477.15 High: 1601.48 Low: 1465.84 Close: 1600.34 Rally high before next oscillation down reached on November 21 at 1654.43 December 12, 1997 (Nasdaq closed below the lower daily bb) Open: 1564.06 High: 1567.28 Low: 1533.62 Close: 1536.58 December 13, 1997 (new low and reversal) Open: 1540.41 High: 1542.72 Low: 1461.97 Close: 1536.56 Rally high before next oscillation down reached on January 5 at 1602.88 A trading bottom in the Nasdaq will be confirmed by an intraday low below 1796 followed by a close near the top of that day's trading range. It would be ideal if the index closes higher that day or above its open. I would also call a trading bottom in the Nasdaq if the index closes above the lower daily bollinger band. This would require the index to close above 1810 as of the close on May 22. INTC is an important stock to look at when analyzing the Nasdaq not only because of its heavy weighting in the index, but also because it has a big psychological impact on the market. The stock stabilized at 74 last Thursday and Friday and if it rallies, then the Nasdaq will probably hold here and the pressure will come off many other semiconductor stocks. The stock has support on its weekly chart between 69 (lower weekly bollinger band) and 71 (many intraday lows on the last decline). If INTC declines into that range, then look for the Nasdaq to test its support at 1760. Technical analysis is highly dependent on statistics and based on that, I think there is a good chance that INTC will decline to the 69 - 71 area and the Nasdaq will test 1760. I believe however, that this would represent a very good time to buy call options on the Nasdaq index because there is ample reason to believe that the index will hold that level if reached. S&P 500: Expected trading range of 1080 to 1130. Closed at 1110 on May 22, near the middle of the range and just above the middle daily bollinger band. Dow Industrials: Expected trading range of 8900 to 9260. Closed at 9114 on May 22, slightly above the middle of the trading range and just above the middle daily bollinger band. OEX: Expected trading range of 525 to 546. Closed at 539 on May 22, slightly above the middle of the trading range and just above the middle daily bollinger band. I'll post some comments on the Z's stocks and ADPT (requested by John Doe) later today or sometime this weekend. Thanks for the links Sue...interesting reading. Nice trades last week Bill. Keep up the good work. Thanks for the list Darth. I'm going to check them out. As always Paul, your work on the contest doesn't go unnoticed. Thanks a lot for your efforts. Ron, I will probably sell T on Tuesday to eliminate our deficit balance. I'll comment on IRF when I do my weekly post later, but the stock looks like it reversed on Friday and I might add to our position unless somebody has a better buy. Thanks again for all the hard work you put in on the portfolio. Have a nice long weekend everybody. Dan