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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jules V who wrote (56036)	5/23/1998 3:01:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Jules - Re; "So how are competitors coping - ie. will they be getting the dreaded "slot squeeze". " No, not yet. Currently, Intel is shipping about half their products in a Slot 1 configuration. Many of their customers are also at 50% Slot 1 - Dell being an exception with about 85% +/- 10% SLot 1. Since the AMD and Cyrix sell into the low end of the market, this low end will be the last segment to remain Socket 7. Currently, Intel sells about 20 milion CPUs per quarter and Cyrix/AMD about 2 million between them for a total quarterly market of about 22 million CPUs. Since Intel is about half Slot 1 (10 million) there are about 12 million Socket 7 boards sold each quarter, plenty of opportunity for AMD/Cyrix right now. When Intel converts ENTIRELY to Slot 1/Slot 2 - by the end of this year, AMD and Cyrix will have to compete for 100% of the Socket 7 market among themselves. At that time - early 1999 - AMD and Cyrix will be trying to EXPAND sales into a RAPIDLY SHRINKING market. This will be further complicated by the fact that AMD & Cyrix will be trying to raise ASPs by selling faster Socket 7 CPUs at the same time Intel will be enhancing the LOW END of Slot 1 with cheaper Celerons and FASTER Mendocino/Celerons. So, the REAL squeeze will happen in Q1 of next year - perhaps late in Q4 of this year. I am making a prediction that BOTH AMD and Cyrix working on Slot 1 interfaces and will roll out these products next year - along with a legal assault by AMD challenging Intel's Slot 1 "proprietary rights". Paul