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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (9120)	5/23/1998 4:03:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

RDB: having been wrong on market timing since late January, I will foolishly stick my neck out again and venture to say that IMO the return to earth in tech stock prices that started last week may extend to the rest of the market soon with other stock sectors even those with no perceived Asian exposure but astronomic valuations, such as CDRD and BFT, starting to drop. Pancho

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (9120)	5/25/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<That's right folks, trailing 12 month earnings on the S&P 500 actually dropped 1% from a year ago and they continue to drop.> R.D. It wasn't to long ago that when a stock reported lower earnings or warned of such, it would not see a new high again until good news was received. However since Trillions of $'s and millions of jobs depend on the market going higher any negative news is reported as a buying opportunity on a beaten down stock with a good future. To many suckers are in this game to let it end so soon. However, as I've been saying for months the Asian Tsunami is heading our way and with that will be increasing trade deficeits at first, followed by rising nterest rates and then rising budget deficeits and finally recession. Indonesia is bankrupt soon to be joined by S Korea. Russia, Mexico and Brazil banking will collapse in the next couple of months, China and Hong Kong will devalue by the fall. Japan is imploding (Rubin wants a weak Yen so their exports keep them afloat, even at the cost of US exports and increasing trade deficeits). Employees don't get cash, they get stock options. Companies are not bought over with cash, they're bought with stock. Stock has become the new fiat currency of the US. One day in the near future people again will want to paid in cash so that that they can buy and invest the way they see fit.