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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Salty who wrote (2492)	5/26/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: Ray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3029

This is a repost from a colleague of mine. VERY interesting. information. From Motley Fool board, and other boards as well. Subject: SPOKE WITH KELLER Date: Tue, May 26, 1998 14:05 EDT From: Warren5550 Message-id: I spoke with Doug Keller at INVX this morning to ask about the recent decline. He said that orders have been flat since the last conference call. He said that this is true for the whole sector and that INVX still maintains 60-70% market share. Doug mentioned that he spoke with an analyst who said that HTCH is experiencing the same flat orders. Visibility and lead-times remain short-term. So, since orders have not picked up YET, the Wall St. perspective has shifted to the short term, and here we are flirting with a share price of 19, while HTCH is still standing tall (for how long?). I asked about the progress on bonding the HIF to the suspension. He said that they have been approached by the early adopters of TSA who are disappointed in the price. (this was also mentioned in the CC) HTCH initially said that TSA would cost $1-$1.25, they are selling it for $2.25 and it COSTS $3.00 to make (this is due to expensive domestic labor and expensive materials). One of those early adopters is Quantum, who will be evaluating the bonded HIF/Suspension within 2 months. Doug said the new product costs about $1-$1.05 ($0.40 for the HIF, $0.50 for the suspension, and about $0.05 for the labor and overhead - obviously cheaper, more versatile, and as good or better performance). The equipment to automatically bond the HIF to the suspension is being made by the engineers who left HTCH! I asked about the performance characteristics of HIF vs. TSA. He said that HIF does not have limitations that HTCH originally believed difficult, if not insurmountable. For instance, HTCH thought INVX couldn't put a pre-amp chip on the HIF. They can, and are doing so for Seagate. HTCH also thought that the adhesive used with HIF would not tolerate the heat experienced in the drive - INVX proved this wrong as well. HTCH also thought the flight characteristics of the HIF would be a problem, yet the Seagate Cheetah drive, which spins at 10,000 rpm's has no such problem. Finally, HTCH thought INVX would not be able to create flex circuits with very tight tolerances (sub-nanometer spacing), yet INVX's Litchfield facility is one of the world leaders in this field, while HTCH is still on a learning curve trying to get TSA going. He really took a shot at HTCH on this point, stressing that INVX (LPC) has been at the leading edge of tight tolerances for a long time, while HTCH is relatively new to the game. He mentioned that a small amount of revenue from flip chips is hitting the books now, and that it will gradually (as opposed to suddenly) grow. So, I took from this call that the turnaround isn't complete, but the mid to long term is looking better. At least there is an explanation for the recent drop. Also, my guess is that HTCH will not weather a flat quarter well. Happy Trails, Warren

To: Don Salty who wrote (2492)	5/27/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Randy Tidd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

> My call buy decisions have not resulted in happy > results. That's the down side of having a positive > mental attitude! I would persevere, I think that rational risk taking in options can pay off. In the past 9 months I have made three plays of about the same size, and lost 100%, lost 50%, and gained 385% on the three. As long as you are gambling with money you can lose, you can keep trying. You theoretically get smarter each time, too. I never wager more than 2-3% of my portfolio. I am still eyeing the INVX Nov calls, but I need to understand why the stock is falling so consistently. This is beginning to look like a couple of other stocks I've owned which fell constantly over a period of months with no explanation and before I knew it I was down by 80%. Seeing this stock with a P/E of 10 and a Price/Sales of 2.2 defies any of my analysis. Randy