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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Optician1 who wrote (6980)	5/24/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: CH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

Thanks for your detailed analysis, appreciate that. I think what you said are the general rule to be a successful investor in Silicon business, and I myself is doing the same thing in many stocks like that. FIBR is one of the few that I did not start with restricted stock because I am in this industry and I am pretty sure Fiber communication is going to fly (although at that time, I am think of the FDDI, not Gigamux type), and I think I know more about this industry than the average investor. I bought the shares at around $13 early 96 and I started a cycle of buying at lower price in order to average out my stock price, and the end result was that I closed up the difference of my average price with the market price of this stock, but my absolute losses is enlarged. Early this year, after reading CC comments on the quarter review, I decided to get rid all of my FIBR shares at average $5 and that bought me a loss of more than $100K. The worse part is that my ego and my greedy heart do not allow me to stay away from this stock, I do not want to lose big money on this stock, and I come back to accumulate this share at $4 level and hopefully I can cover my loss if I can sell it above $5, but now I am facing another $100K losses. I think the major difference of FIBR compared to the other start up company is : 1. It is not a start up company, it stayed as a public company for more than 10 years, and its mission is changing so you might not be buying what you agreed (like two year ago, I buy the concept of fiber communication and I guess it is why Osicom is coded FIBR but now they said their "star" is Net+Arm, what a joke). Its difference as a start-up company is the start-up company may belong to some guys who has brilliant idea but no money, they need you fund to help out and your help will be paid off if the idea is successful. But my personal experience is that FIBR may be selling you some idea you like to hear so to exchange your fund, at least they cannot prove the otherwise after 10 years; 2. It already raised $60-100 million from the market (CC said that but seems no one objected it), for any single technology, this capital is good enough to bring the company to a level to prove if the idea is working. I would prefer to lose my fund in the way that I picked an idea which did not work. 3. I still believe whether the company lose money or not, it is irrelevant to Par's wealth, in that case, we cannot motivate him to make the company profitable. 4. If the company already adjust its level that the stock price to be fairly stated at $3-4, (from the last S3 and the FB deal), for someone who holds the stock at $10 or above with real cash to buy. We only have chance to gain after all others holding or converting at $3-4 has 300% profit, what is our chance? Selfishly speaking, I want more investors come in to buy the stock so I got a chance to sell it, but one the other hand, I have to warn that we cannot treat FIBR as another Silicon start up and you cannot listen to what they said, you have to see what they did. As a player in the same industry, I am pretty sure they will have another lousy quarter to be announced. This is my personal opinion, you can keep on investing on FIBR if you see the price at this level is a good buy. CH