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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (4659)	5/24/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I rolled my OCT puts(80's and 100's) over to JAN puts last week. Granted, kind of a conservative approach to shorting this thing - however, if it goes as low as some of us think it will eventually, ALL puts will make good money; why not pay a little extra for some anti-anxiety protection by owning the JAN's? (If you roll over from the OCT's to the JAN's,, and you happen to be down in your OCT's, you can book a tax loss, resume your position immediately, and there is no(as I understand it) "wash rule" problem -- OCT and JAN are not "substantially like" securities.) Obvious shorts like Amazing.Con: Is this a great country, or what?!

To: Bilow who wrote (4659)	5/24/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

bilow. i'm planning to hold through expiration - oct. amzn is a $20 stock and it will get there. the only question is when. my amzn and mu plays also act as insurance against my long positions so they have a dual purpose.

To: Bilow who wrote (4659)	6/21/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 164684

Hi All; AMZN has been quite the rocket. I think the secret to playing AMZN is to watch the volume. If go short you must, (and the company doesn't have a hope of fulfilling the long term bulls hopes,) then short as soon as you detect a decrease in (daily) volume. 6 month chart: tscn.com Buy back when you detect a trending increase in daily volume, or when a trailing stop loss of, say, $5 is exceeded. Were I long the stock, I would sell it now, though I would wait to see the volume for one more day before I went short. Of course I can't borrow these shares easily, so I won't. Note. From the pain that fundamental bears have suffered on this stock, it is clear that every investment must have an exit point that is tripped in the (unlikely) event that market movement goes against the position. This is called a "stop-loss." I have seen too many people lose too much money by holding to losing positions for one life already. To be correct in the long term is not enough. I suppose if one hews to the usual daytrader's definition of overtrading: Never put more than 1 or 2% of your equity at risk in a single trade, (or a group of closely correlated trades). then one wouldn't have to worry about short term moves against one's fundamental position in a stock. To put more at risk than a few percent is to convert investing into gambling. It is usually due to failure to appreciate the risks of the stock market, or delusions of omniscience. Now that I'm a daytrader, and actually try to earn a living trading, I appreciate these things much more. If you have a steady source of income, a few gambles are okay. But if you intend on living on your investments, gambling is forbidden. These comments apply to both bulls and bears. I'm not sure that options are a reasonable vehicle for making predictions that stocks will return to fundamental values. The reason (in the case of AMZN) is that the premiums are so high, and they are not even available in the very far-off time periods needed. For instance, it would be better if AMZN had a put that expired in 2002, then fundamental analysis would have a chance to work. The stock has already proved it can fly for a year, why not another year? -- Carl