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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3828)	5/25/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 9980

This article was right on the ball as far as I see it. The collapse phase took 2-3 years in both Eastern Europe in 89 on and the US in the Great Depression. Britain was depressed for 20 years almost between the Second World Wars - I see Japan as being Britain this time round. I don't see A depression coming in the US. But in the end there'll be a regular recession which won't help those parts of the World in depression. Britain led the US in the last depression cycle. Currently British interest rates are 7.5%, the yield curve is inverted and price and wage inflation are picking up. Classic end of business cycle symptoms. Profits in the US have peaked (see Ed Yardeni's website). The S&P 500 index is in a stall (beautiful damped oscillation). It only needs a little more bad news to cause a correction now. Deutsche Bank may have these big loans through the Dutch connection (colonial power in Indonesia). David