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Microcap & Penny Stocks : VLVT (was CSMA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TraderGreg who wrote (7299)	5/25/1998 2:27:00 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11708

The 44 stocks, stratified by 12/31/97 ASK prices: PRICE CHANGE BY STARTING ASK PRICE RANGE 5/22/98 Change in Bid Price 12/31/97 ASK price # # # % Price Change >= < UP DN UNCH Avg Best Worst $2.500 & up 5 3 1 9.5 70.0 -58.5 $1.000 $2.500 5 4 0 6.6 121.6 -86.9 $0.500 $1.000 2 2 0 35.9 129.6 -34.0 $0.250 $0.500 4 2 0 48.0 177.1 -25.9 $0.100 $0.250 2 4 0 -0.1 113.3 -43.2 $0.000 $0.100 4 6 0 50.2 488.2 -80.5 ALL ENTRANTS 22 21 1 24.5 488.2 -86.9 Note: Price range based on pre-reverse prices as of 12/31/97

To: TraderGreg who wrote (7299)	5/28/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: jan_mike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11708

Stock picking contest addendum. I did some very simple number additional crunching on the contest standings. My hypothesis is that of the famous desert survival exercise where a consensus opinion is proven (usually) to be better than that of individuals. I am thinking of starting a new penny picking thread along those lines with a few wrinkles, so I wondered what the contest showed. TG says through 20 weeks the average gain is 24.5%; 22 up; 21 down; 1 unchanged. My analysis was only on those companies that were picked by more than one person, therefore presenting a consensus of sorts. My findings include the 7 companies that were picked by more than one person. SETO was picked by 5, CSMA by 8, the other 5 were picked by two each. The simple average change for these 7 companies is + 85% (I used rounded percentages in calcs) vs 24.5% for the whole sample. This is a hell of a statistic. The simple average of the two most popular picks is +22%. I didn't attempt a weighted average because of the built in CSMA bias inherent in running the contest on thread CSMA. Of the 7 multi-picked companies 4 are up and three down which is a better win/loss percentage than the entire sample too, although the small sample diminishes the significance. Of the 23 people who voted for the 7 stocks, 11 are on the plus side and 12 on the minus side. Since 8 of the 23 people were CSMA voters and presumably thread biased, a completely random contest on thread xyz would have showed even better results. Throw out, or diminish the coco biased people altogether, and the numbers really crank. Not a CSMA slander, just a statistical fact of life. Consensus picks were in fact superior, and arguably the more pickers, the righter the consensus. Respectfully submitted, Mike

To: TraderGreg who wrote (7299)	5/30/1998 12:53:00 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11708

The standings of the stock picking contest after 21 weeks follow: 21 stocks are UP, 20 stocks are DOWN, 3 are UNCHANGED The average change is POSITIVE, 24.6 %. The winners continue to provide a solid POSITIVE for the year. Big losers for the week were: CVIA, FAMH, EMPE Big winners for the week were: CITN, USMC, CSGC, NVXE ENTRANTS IN THE CSMA THREAD'S STOCK PICK OF 1998 CONTEST % Change________ ________ Annualized Yield BEST >>>>>>>> 444.1% ________ ________ 6533% AVERAGE >>>> 24.6% ________ ________ 337% WORST >>>>> -88.5% ________ ________ -99.5% SPLITS:CVIA:1-300;RFID:1-4.5;BCMD: 1-10;OLEX: 1-20; VINF: 1-2 ACCY ->CSGC;NOFF ->CITN; NETZ->ZULU Rank 21 weeks this last ___________________ 12/31/97 5/29/98 % Change in Price ________________ wk wk SI Name Stock ASK Bid Wk YTD Annualized Yield 1 1 PRATT9999_________ AVBC 0.0680 0.3700 -7.50% 444.12% 6533.08% 2 3 AmirFeinsilber_______ CITN 0.3500 1.7188 77.19% 391.07% 5045.24% 3 2 Dick Jaffe___________ LGOV 0.0950 0.2400 -14.29% 152.63% 892.28% 4 4 George D. ()________ IMGN 0.8438 1.8125 -6.45% 114.81% 564.13% 5 5 ROD ()____________ VRGN 1.1563 2.3438 -8.54% 102.70% 475.23% 6 6 CIMA_______________ MINE 0.1500 0.2800 -12.50% 86.67% 369.04% 6 6 Jackel______________ MINE 0.1500 0.2800 -12.50% 86.67% 369.04% 7 7 Brian H. ()__________ SETO 0.4100 0.7500 0.00% 82.93% 346.12% 7 7 CleveNoyes_________ SETO 0.4100 0.7500 0.00% 82.93% 346.12% 7 7 Jan_Mike___________ SETO 0.4100 0.7500 0.00% 82.93% 346.12% 7 7 KZAP______________ SETO 0.4100 0.7500 0.00% 82.93% 346.12% 7 7 TraderGreg__________ SETO 0.4100 0.7500 0.00% 82.93% 346.12% 8 11 Jimbo______________ MIDL 0.5938 1.0625 9.68% 78.95% 322.47% 9 8 Albig______________ CCUR 2.3438 3.9688 -3.79% 69.33% 268.48% 10 12 CHARLES W. FISHER__ ZULU 0.2700 0.4450 5.95% 64.81% 244.61% 11 9 edward shapiro______ FIXC 3.1250 4.8750 -8.24% 56.00% 200.76% 12 10 Jeffrey C. Garland_____ ARET 0.0200 0.0310 -6.06% 55.00% 196.00% 13 13 Ken Schumacher_____ ATHM 25.1250 34.6250 -7.97% 37.81% 121.25% 14 17 M Chen_____________ RNTK 1.3125 1.7813 3.64% 35.71% 113.01% 15 14 WR61499___________ OZON 1.3750 1.8125 -6.45% 31.82% 98.19% 16 15 Poor Pete___________ LIPO 4.6875 6.1250 -4.39% 30.67% 93.93% 17 18 hoffy______________ ESRS 0.0650 0.0800 0.00% 23.08% 67.22% 18 16 Blackie _____________ ICCN 3.0000 3.6250 -9.38% 20.83% 59.78% 19 20 Walt_______________ VINF 7.5625 8.9375 -1.38% 18.18% 51.23% 20 19 Carole_____________ RFID 1.0350 1.2100 -3.97% 16.91% 47.23% 21 28 Jodi Segal-Lankry____ CSGC 0.2400 0.2600 30.00% 8.33% 21.92% 22 36 Kurt N.____________ USMC 0.1100 0.1100 76.00% 0.00% 0.00% 23 23 FTJoe______________ LXR 2.5000 2.5000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 24 22 Bruce ()____________ DCTC 1.9688 1.9688 -4.55% 0.00% 0.00% 24 22 WARD ()__________ DCTC 1.9688 1.9688 -4.55% 0.00% 0.00% 25 24 James Randall Ingram_ NPEC 0.0440 0.0420 -2.33% -4.55% -10.88% 26 21 Pease ()____________ NUTK 0.2600 0.2400 -14.29% -7.69% -17.98% 26 21 YOYO______________ NUTK 0.2600 0.2400 -14.29% -7.69% -17.98% 27 26 John Vollke ()_______ NHMCF 2.8125 2.2500 -10.00% -20.00% -42.45% 28 29 Mike Wood__________ TCTCF 1.5000 1.1875 0.00% -20.83% -43.92% 29 34 emergencyops_______ NVXE 0.1600 0.1250 25.00% -21.88% -45.73% 30 35 RBM________________ MDCE 0.2100 0.1550 19.23% -26.19% -52.86% 31 30 David R Hayes_______ BANY 0.2700 0.1900 -5.00% -29.63% -58.11% 31 30 James h. Snyder______ BANY 0.2700 0.1900 -5.00% -29.63% -58.11% 32 31 Sam I am____________ NTAH 0.5000 0.3500 6.06% -30.00% -58.65% 33 32 CHRIS B___________ EUTO 0.0475 0.0320 6.67% -32.63% -62.40% 33 32 Doug Gallian_________ EUTO 0.0475 0.0320 6.67% -32.63% -62.40% 34 33 Tom Rolfer ()________ MPTV 0.0114 0.0075 4.17% -34.21% -64.54% 35 27 Phill_______________ EMPE 0.8125 0.5313 -22.73% -34.62% -65.08% 36 25 VBH________________ FAMH 0.3100 0.2000 -28.57% -35.48% -66.22% 37 38 Heidi ()____________ MDMI 0.0800 0.0400 0.00% -50.00% -82.03% 38 37 Charger____________ EVRE 1.3750 0.6875 -8.33% -50.00% -82.03% 39 39 Bob Walters_________ IAUS 3.4375 1.5000 -4.00% -56.36% -87.17% 40 40 Jurgen Rosch ()_____ IKAR 2.5625 0.9688 -8.82% -62.20% -91.01% 41 41 Big Al_____________ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 charles messick______ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 David Smith_________ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 IRVINESULLY________ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 LONGfellow()_______ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 RGrant26 ()_________ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 SJ - Stephen_________ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 41 41 StevenDurrington_____ CSMA 1.0100 0.3500 -10.26% -65.35% -92.75% 42 43 Ajay_______________ OLEX 1.0000 0.1900 -2.56% -81.00% -98.36% 43 44 Bob M.____________ BCMD 10.0000 1.2500 -4.76% -87.50% -99.42% 44 42 BJCooke____________ CVIA 9.7500 1.1250 -68.75% -88.46% -99.52%