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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jelrod3 who wrote (19665)	5/25/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

jelrod3, the capex reduction is for '98 and '99 is just around the corner. And, some of us would even settle for a recovery that begins to pick up slowly in '99. <G> Still, it would be best not to put all eggs into one basket. utopia.knoware.nl GM

To: jelrod3 who wrote (19665)	5/25/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

J3: GM is right: I am ignoring all news about 1998. Everyone already expects a terrible 1998, and it's in the stock. The stock is trading on 1999 expectations. I think, not sure, that the Japanese year ends in April, so 1998/99 would end in April 1999. Can someone confirm? Also, you said: "Until the spending for semiconductor equipment starts to turn around, AMAT will continue lower." Actually, the stock will go up when DRAM prices firm, and when people are expecting a rebound in the semi-equip BTB soon, and many months (4-6) before the spending actually happens. By the time revenues are actually up for semi-equips, I expect the stock will already have doubled from its lows.