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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (14041)	5/25/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 213177

Folks, here is one good reason why the stock will have a very difficult time surpassing $35 this year. From the 10-K filling: The Notes are convertible by their holders at any time after September 5, 1996 at a conversion price of $29.205 per share subject to adjustments as defined in the Note agreement. The effective rate is 6.51%... At any price above $31, it pays to convert the notes to cash and put the proceedings on CDs. If we assume that the note holders want a premium for their risk they can hold the notes until it reaches $35. At that point converting their notes would give them double the earnings than holding them... That is a 22 million share resistance level (on top of other investors who bought at $28-30 and would be happy to bail out at $35 for 30% gains).

To: Alomex who wrote (14041)	5/25/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 213177

Yet more stuff from the SEC fillings.... Accounts receivable are down $228 million from September 1997 to March 1998. Total current assets are down $211 million during the same period. In other words, the $100 million in profits reported so far are built on top of a $200 million reduction in accounts receivable/assets. And more: As of March 27, 1998, a valuation allowance of $209 million was recorded against the deferred tax asset for the benefits of tax losses which may not be realized... the amount of the deferred tax assets considered realizable could be reduced in the near and long term if estimates of future taxable U.S. income are reduced. Such an occurrence could materially adversely affect the Company's consolidated financial results. I don't understand the part above (any accountants out there?). Is this a potential write down? But it appear as losses in the balance sheet? On sales: the company does not currently anticipate significant sequential quarterly growth before the fourth quarter of fiscal 1998. In other words. This matches my revenue projections for this quarter in the range of $1,440-1,480 million. Year to year growth is not expected before the first quarter of fiscal 1999. Recall that revenues in Q1 fiscal 1998 were $1,578 million. On the good side, the company believes that gross margin is sustainable....

To: Alomex who wrote (14041)	5/26/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

It seems to me that the price is lower than $27.70. Closing price on Friday in Germany should have been the equivalent of no higher than US$28 3/4 as the stock traded in NASDAQ below that figure all day. Now subtract 4.98% from that and we get a closing price for today of $27.32. Alternatively, if we assume Apple closed Friday in Germany while at $28 1/4 in NASDAQ, today's (monday) closing price would be US$26.84. Indeed, the stock closed up 0.31% today (tuesday) at Frankfurt, while in NASDAQ was quoting at $27. Working backwards we see that yesterday's closing price in Frankfurt must have been $26.92 which for all practical purposes matches my back of the envelope computations of $26.84 closing price. Having said that, both yesterdays and todays trading volume in Frankfurt is minimal (roughly 4k shares), so at no time should we read too much into it.