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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (19031)	5/25/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

OK. You think the market is in for a correction that will happen shortly. Is this a significant market correction that you are anticipating? Do you think the market will go down to lets say 8750? Or do you think it will go down further? IMO I think if there is a market correction, it will be on the order of a smaller adjustment that will have 8750 as its bottom. Right now I am looking to the market just to test its April lows. If the market moves up from here, I think it will have trouble retaining new highs over the short term. Given a choice between the two, I am more inclined to believe that the market will move up from here or stay in its trading range than work though a significant market correction. I do think the general direction of the market is still up. I am a believer in the longer term trend remaining in effect until it is invalidated and not a moment before. So I am still bullish on this market. Like I stated before, all I try to do is evaluate the probabilities and liklihood of the near term market action. So I am not trying to be "wishy washy" here. I think I have stated enough to differentiate myself from others with a bearish posture. I do believe it will be more time before the market starts its next bull run. I base this on a couple different things. One is the recent change in market sentiment toward a more pessimistic stance. Another is that earnings warning season is coming up which is not giving the market much time to adopt a more positive stance and begin its rally. Also I think the fund may wait through this period of time before stepping up their purchases. Also there has been that recent sell off in the techs to help this negative market sentiment. I have personally discovered charting itself is inadequate. I find that charting and TA supplemented by market "fundamentals" like money flow, the position of the funds in the market, and also sentiment, provides me a much more accurate picture. So this is why I take much time in talking about the different participants in the market, in particular the funds, and also market sentiment. Bob Graham