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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1693)	5/25/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 2951

MikeM, <<Anyway, say if you were a working person in China, had all your savings tucked away in a bank, and then you pick up the South China Morning Post. Wouldn't you be concerned to read that maybe 40% of outstanding loans in the nation may be, "bad?" Why hasn't their been a run on the banks? >> Several possibilities here that I will venture. First, I doubt if the average Chinese saver reads the Post. Secondly, it may be a lack of alternatives. The average mainland Chinese saver certainly isn't going to put the money in a foreign bank. IMO these are a people culturally and historically steeped in mistrust of the outside. (For many good reasons I suspect). Please note, I remark on the AVERAGE saver in mainland China as distinguished from the much more worldly and sophisticated "off shore" Chinese. I have considerably more experience with the latter then the former among whom traditions and customs are even more closely held to amongst a people that doggedly cling to their ethos. Best, Stitch

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1693)	5/26/1998 3:43:00 AM
From: Bob Swift	Respond to of 2951

<<Why hasn't their been a run on the banks? >> In 1996 Oct, we visited a small village about 50 miles from GuangZhou and talked to some local folks who told us that a farmer just picked a fight with a local bank. Apparently he went to the bank to withdraw money for his wedding and was told that there was no money even if it was for his funeral. Later, the farmer gathered his clan and proceeded to beat the day light out of the bank teller. It is probably common knowledge that the banks are empty. I told my wife to sell her HKSB at 270. She wouldn't, and not 260 neither only to see it plunged to 160 in October 97. The good news is that she finally sold some at 240, the bad news is that she still holds 80% of the stock and now it is at 196. Well, 13 minutes to the close in the HK market, I got to go to bed.