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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (19066)	5/26/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

and based on the 9 day, look at what the MACD is saying about the Nasdaq. Paulo

To: William H Huebl who wrote (19066)	5/26/1998 10:03:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

BIll; Lately I also have been getting buy and sell signals that for the short term work, BUT the problem is if your not fast , and I do mean FAST, and if you don't hit them just about perfect they don't do you any good. In short these short term moves have not been strong enough to let the little guy make any thing if you look at the total cost of trading them..one mistake puts you in the hole and trying to nickel and dime your way out don't get you anywhere. It's just not been a good trading market, heck I hit the down side just right in April , to hold on one day to long..out of a 5% correction I got about 1/2%, the ones who hit the dip just right are a very few minority, and if they didn't already close that I bet they wish they had. ------------------------- The sell signal I had last week worked just fine, and on paper by closing Friday I made maybe 1/2% , but what works on paper seldom works near as good with real trading. Options skew, even the SPY and MDY skew enough to eat you alive if you not both fast and lucky. ------------------- Lets say I see the buy signal this morning and jump on the MDY at the open, when I go to sell it I have to take the bid, or miss the top. Do I have enough faith it will run on up for the balance of the week..because if it don't I wont make diddley squat for the risk involved. The thing is have we put in the new bottom if not a lot of some ones is going to be holding on and praying for some time to come, and with capital tied up not even making the short term MM rate. ------------------------ I think we are getting focused to short term in an almost flat market..will we be 2% higher this time next month is the question. Or even a good 1% ..can we go one month without having some 3 to 4 % correction to have to dig our way out of..well since early April we sure haven't. Will we take out the April highs enough to save the hide of those who bought at the wrong time and will we do it enough for them to cover expense and make more that they would had they stayed in MM funds..if we can't say yes to that with some degree of certainty then the best place is cash. To compeat with the computer programs on day trading or even short terming the market is a program of insanity for the little trader. Some SOES bandits ( about 50% ) are doing OK but they have better connections and are tied to the inside market quotes and just working momentum buys, BUT the other 50% are losing more than he good 50% is making. Market over head says there is not a 50/50 win lose ratio on trades. Were I did good from Feb 1st till early April, I also pointed out part of that was pure luck, as I leveraged beyond what I would have had I known what I was doing. I have not done frazz since early April, in fact the few winners have not paid for the losers since then..A good uptrend can make any of us look smart but this crap for the last month and a half has been more a waste of time and effort than anything else. The way you started the thred with "major market moves" is what we need to focus on as these short term knee jerks are not worth a flip for anyone but the pros , it's fun to try and call them but it's not profitable. ( except for them who don't really have the time or motive to tell us what they are doing ). --------------------- Jim