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To: Stoctrash who wrote (43866)	5/26/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Kevin, lisa & all money flow-ers.... Logical Information Machines, Inc. [Home] [Stocks] [Bonds] [FX] [Agriculture] [Metals] [Energy] [Astrology] [Europe] [Asia] [Today's Idea] [Daily Numbers] [Archive] [Lounge] Introducing the Money Flow Divergence Model Here, we identify the last day of each month as a key time to measure flows of funds in out of stocks in the OEX using our proprietary measure called MoneyFlow - which we have calculated for each day of each month since 1992. MoneyFlow simply looks at volume on up-ticks and volume on down-ticks to determine how much money enters/leaves a particular stock on a day-to-day basis. During the first week of each month, LIM receives updates as to the flows for each day of the prior month. We then use this data to identify interesting divergences in flows of funds. What do we mean by interesting divergences in flows of funds? Simply, we search for stocks that have rallied during the first days of the month despite a large outflow of money on the last day of the previous month. We bring this behavior to our readers' attention suspecting that these up-moves may be misleading; hence, the stock may proceed to underperform the OEX over the balance of the month. In fact, we do more than suspect. We publish a list of dates in which these particular diverging stocks have lagged/declined as well as the current "hit" date, which in this case would be 4/30/98. Conversely, we also look for stocks that have slid during the first days of the new month after a large inflow into the stock on the last day of the month. We suspect these stocks may outperform the OEX over the coming month. Naturally, as in the case of the negative divergence, we publish the list of historical occurrences substantiating our suspicions. The following stocks may out-perform the OEX for the balance of April. (The term "out-perform" implies that, for the period in question, the stock may EITHER rally more than the OEX on a percentage basis or decline less than the OEX on a percentage basis, depending on which direction the index travels. AIG - American International Group AN - Amoco BAC - Bank America Corp COL - Columbia/HCA HealthCare Corp. The following stocks may under-perform the OEX for the balance of April. (The term "under-perform" implies that, for the period in question, the stock may EITHER rally less than the OEX on a percentage basis or decline more than the OEX on a percentage basis, depending on which direction the index travels.) ARC - Atlantic Richfield BA - Boeing DAL - Delta Air Lines GM - General Motors IP - International Paper KM - K Mart LTD - Limited MKG - Mallinckrodt XON - Exxon Let variable values: theOEX = AIG XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 20 Date Day _21 03/31/1994 Thu 0.9111 08/31/1994 Wed 0.5352 10/31/1994 Mon 2.5454 12/30/1994 Fri 6.4639 06/30/1995 Fri -1.6001 08/31/1995 Thu 3.5663 06/28/1996 Fri 4.0749 12/31/1997 Wed -0.9442 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg 1.9441 AvgPos 3.0161 AvgNeg -1.2721 PctPos 75.0000 PctNeg 25.0000 Maximum 6.4639 Minimum -1.6001 StdDev 2.7234 ZStat 0.7138 Variance 7.4167 9 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = AN XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 09/30/1993 Thu -2.3903 05/31/1994 Tue 1.3176 10/31/1994 Mon 1.0280 03/31/1995 Fri 6.0160 05/31/1995 Wed -3.8254 02/29/1996 Thu 2.5409 06/28/1996 Fri 0.4985 11/29/1996 Fri 5.4919 05/30/1997 Fri -4.5782 03/31/1998 Tue 2.1575 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg 0.8256 AvgPos 2.7215 AvgNeg -3.5980 PctPos 70.0000 PctNeg 30.0000 Maximum 6.0160 Minimum -4.5782 StdDev 3.5745 ZStat 0.2310 Variance 12.7774 11 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = BAC XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 02/28/1995 Tue 1.1126 03/29/1996 Fri -2.4543 04/30/1996 Tue -0.1493 06/28/1996 Fri 10.1937 11/29/1996 Fri 3.3635 12/31/1996 Tue 7.4153 07/31/1997 Thu 0.9115 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg 2.9133 AvgPos 4.5993 AvgNeg -1.3018 PctPos 71.4286 PctNeg 28.5714 Maximum 10.1937 Minimum -2.4543 StdDev 4.4519 ZStat 0.6544 Variance 19.8194 8 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = COL XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 20 Date Day _21 01/31/1994 Mon 14.0220 04/29/1994 Fri -2.3173 11/30/1994 Wed 4.4396 06/30/1995 Fri 14.4577 09/29/1995 Fri 2.7186 03/29/1996 Fri -2.2470 04/30/1996 Tue 0.3293 06/28/1996 Fri 4.2709 03/31/1997 Mon 2.1713 09/30/1997 Tue 3.2396 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg 4.1085 AvgPos 5.7061 AvgNeg -2.2821 PctPos 80.0000 PctNeg 20.0000 Maximum 14.4577 Minimum -2.3173 StdDev 5.8493 ZStat 0.7024 Variance 34.2139 11 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = ARC XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 03/31/1993 Wed 2.2571 04/29/1994 Fri -5.8726 04/28/1995 Fri -0.3549 08/31/1995 Thu -7.6285 07/31/1996 Wed -1.4972 04/30/1997 Wed -2.9936 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -2.6816 AvgPos 2.2571 AvgNeg -3.6693 PctPos 16.6667 PctNeg 83.3333 Maximum 2.2571 Minimum -7.6285 StdDev 3.6320 ZStat -0.7383 Variance 13.1917 Let variable values: theOEX = BA XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 02/26/1993 Fri 3.5356 03/31/1994 Thu -1.4813 06/30/1994 Thu -7.5612 08/31/1995 Thu -5.3546 10/31/1995 Tue 1.6903 06/28/1996 Fri -0.0299 09/30/1996 Mon -4.5932 03/31/1997 Mon -9.1028 Avg -2.8621 AvgPos 2.6130 AvgNeg -4.6872 PctPos 25.0000 PctNeg 75.0000 Maximum 3.5356 Minimum -9.1028 StdDev 4.5011 ZStat -0.6359 Variance 20.2600 8 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = DAL XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 08/31/1995 Thu -10.3872 10/31/1995 Tue 9.6920 01/31/1996 Wed 10.0422 03/29/1996 Fri -1.7595 04/30/1997 Wed -4.8566 06/30/1997 Mon -0.4053 08/29/1997 Fri -5.8937 09/30/1997 Tue 9.2622 11/28/1997 Fri -0.5352 01/30/1998 Fri -6.0958 02/27/1998 Fri -6.6335 Avg -0.6882 AvgPos 9.6655 AvgNeg -4.5708 PctPos 27.2727 PctNeg 72.7273 Maximum 10.0422 Minimum -10.3872 StdDev 7.2545 ZStat -0.0949 Variance 52.6284 11 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = GM XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 40 Date Day _21 02/26/1993 Fri -2.1979 09/30/1993 Thu 7.7515 12/31/1993 Fri 1.8818 01/31/1994 Mon -5.4351 03/31/1994 Thu -1.7284 06/30/1994 Thu 0.6160 08/31/1994 Wed -5.8700 03/31/1995 Fri -1.6000 08/31/1995 Thu -7.6301 07/31/1996 Wed -1.9397 11/29/1996 Fri -4.6410 12/31/1996 Tue -2.5102 06/30/1997 Mon 2.3231 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -1.6139 AvgPos 3.1431 AvgNeg -3.7281 PctPos 30.7692 PctNeg 69.2308 Maximum 7.7515 Minimum -7.6301 StdDev 4.0798 ZStat -0.3956 Variance 16.6451 14 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = IP XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 07/30/1993 Fri -2.5290 03/31/1995 Fri 0.7775 06/28/1996 Fri -0.6588 12/31/1996 Tue -4.7997 03/31/1997 Mon -2.0928 06/30/1997 Mon 0.1550 09/30/1997 Tue -9.4731 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -2.6601 AvgPos 0.4662 AvgNeg -3.9107 PctPos 28.5714 PctNeg 71.4286 Maximum 0.7775 Minimum -9.4731 StdDev 3.5374 ZStat -0.7520 Variance 12.5135 8 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = KM XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 40 Date Day _21 08/31/1995 Thu -1.3315 10/31/1995 Tue -8.4053 01/31/1996 Wed 4.9515 09/30/1996 Mon -7.0602 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -2.9614 AvgPos 4.9515 AvgNeg -5.5990 PctPos 25.0000 PctNeg 75.0000 Maximum 4.9515 Minimum -8.4053 StdDev 6.1021 ZStat -0.4853 Variance 37.2357 5 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = KM XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 08/31/1995 Thu -1.3315 10/31/1995 Tue -8.4053 11/30/1995 Thu -5.0355 09/30/1996 Mon -7.0602 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -5.4581 AvgPos NaN AvgNeg -5.4581 PctPos 0.0000 PctNeg 100.0000 Maximum -1.3315 Minimum -8.4053 StdDev 3.0801 ZStat -1.7721 Variance 9.4868 5 Occurrences Le Let variable values: theOEX = LTD XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 02/26/1993 Fri -7.1581 04/30/1993 Fri 2.8638 12/31/1993 Fri -3.4840 06/30/1994 Thu 6.6840 08/31/1994 Wed -6.0244 09/29/1995 Fri -9.6786 01/30/1998 Fri -5.6051 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -3.2004 AvgPos 4.7739 AvgNeg -6.3900 PctPos 28.5714 PctNeg 71.4286 Maximum 6.6840 Minimum -9.6786 StdDev 5.8587 ZStat -0.5463 Variance 34.3239 8 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = MKG XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 60 Date Day _21 08/30/1996 Fri -3.4540 04/30/1997 Wed -1.1743 06/30/1997 Mon -14.3828 09/30/1997 Tue 11.1409 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -1.9675 AvgPos 11.1409 AvgNeg -6.3370 PctPos 25.0000 PctNeg 75.0000 Maximum 11.1409 Minimum -14.3828 StdDev 10.4692 ZStat -0.1879 Variance 109.6031 5 Occurrences Let variable values: theOEX = XON XFlow = MoneyFlow of theOEX Xvar = 40 Date Day _21 12/31/1993 Fri 1.4145 08/31/1995 Thu -1.8400 11/30/1995 Thu -1.6595 12/29/1995 Fri -8.4442 03/29/1996 Fri 0.3110 05/31/1996 Fri 1.3865 08/30/1996 Fri -1.2828 12/31/1996 Tue -2.7617 04/30/1997 Wed -0.7327 08/29/1997 Fri -1.5079 09/30/1997 Tue -1.3168 01/30/1998 Fri -0.7021 04/30/1998 Thu NaN Avg -1.4280 AvgPos 1.0373 AvgNeg -2.2497 PctPos 25.0000 PctNeg 75.0000 Maximum 1.4145 Minimum -8.4442 StdDev 2.5460 ZStat -0.5609 Variance 6.4822 13 Occurrences -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Home] [Stocks] [Bonds] [Foreign Exchange] [Agriculture] [Metals] [Energy] [Astrology] [Asia] [Europe] [Today's Idea] [Daily Numbers] [Archive] [Lounge] Copyright c 1998 [Logical Information Machines]. 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