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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (3026)	5/26/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: Prasanna L Soni	Respond to of 27311

<Bigger revenues and the pie-in-the-sky stock price of 100 mentioned on this thread, will depend on penetrating the cell phone market segment. There the margins will be a lot tighter, and so I see this market cap as a quite distant shot>. I am sure that if any body said in 1995 that the price of DELL Computer will go up 2000%to 3000%. He would have been branded a nut case. I see valence as a way to participate in the Telecom Revolution. 1980's and most of the 1990,s were the times for the computer investors to make money, they will still make money but not at the blistering pace as they have to date. This is the time for the telecom investor, which includes the internet. I remember a fellow by the name burke on SI who scoffed at computer makers calling them box makers and a comodity and how the asians were going to drive the american PC makers out of business. My point ? $100 stock price is not pie in the sky at all. "IF" they keep their technological lead over the competion, and I see no reason why they should not, $100 might be conservative if one looks 3 to 5 yrs out. However, I suspect most people on these boards will have sold their stock a long before $100 ia reached. Human Nature!! Best Wishes Prasanna

To: kolo55 who wrote (3026)	5/26/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: DKR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

I agree that when you isolate the market for laptop batteries, it seems unlikely that VLNC could capture enough market share to reach capacity in the next year or two. However, remember Lev described this market as an $8,000,000,000 market, and growing. My point, focusing solely on laptops and cell-phones may be too narrow a focus. (Just a 3% share of 8 billion is 240 million.) I don't know the battery market well enough to guess at the makeup of this huge market but the possibilities for this technology should be far reaching. Also, IBD reported that the number of mutual funds that own VLNC has increased from 16 to 17, continuing the trend from 12 about four months ago. And I think MM manipulation has been overdone on this thread, like water finding its own level this stock price will move when the market perceives a buying opportunity.

To: kolo55 who wrote (3026)	5/26/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Hi Paul, I have been away and am catching up on my reading. It has been a while since my computations you refer to, but I question the 10 million units per year market limitation. About two months ago I was told that a LITH market study had concluded that the portable models of just one major computer manufacturer would require all the capabilities of VLNC, LITH and ULBI combined. The numbers may have since changed, but I would be interested to know the source of the 10 million unit market size - I suspect it is much higher. On another note, I estimate the energy storage capabilities of Valence's new version to be at least 33% higher than the ones already tested by and met or exceeded the requirements the two major OEM's. The improvements should make the new version clearly superior to anything else available and should therefore warrant premium pricing. For some more numbers to work with, add 33% to my example of three 4x4"x 6mm cells/battery for 52.5 watt/hr per battery x 1.33 = 70 watt hours/ battery for the new version. Multiply this times about $1.60 per watt hour and you have a sales price of $112 each (almost 3 times the $40 price in the previous example.) The negotiated price for large volumes may differ, but I remember Cal Reed's yardstick was $2 per watt hour a little over a year ago. I remember a projection to about $1.50 by the year 2000. I would welcome more analyst estimates for the portable computer market. As you mentioned, the replacement market for Li-Ion, liquid electrolyte battery packs should also be considerable. A 4"x4" Valence battery pack might have 1.23(Compaq number for solid vs liquid) x 1.33 (Valence new technology) or about 1.6 times the storage capacity by volume. At about 60% of the weight, it translates to about 2 1/2 times the energy stored by weight when compared with todays liquid-cell canister type battery packs. Does $100 per laptop battery make the numbers come out a little better? Best Regards, FMK